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Macro questions and market strength

Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan

Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzias and Dominic Wilson project that 2025 U.S. real GDP will grow by approximately 2.5% despite an effective tariff increase of 4–7 percentage points, a scenario where tailwinds continue to outweigh policy headwinds. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates later in the year due to sticky but manageable inflation, markets remain resilient near record highs driven by strong consumer income growth and a pricing dynamic that favors offshore equities. The analysts warn that aggressive tariff implementation poses a significant tail risk for growth and bond yields, yet they maintain that the current low recession probability supports a gradual upward drift in risk assets.