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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Macro questions and market strength
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzias and Dominic Wilson project that 2025 U.S. real GDP will grow by approximately 2.5% despite an effective tariff increase of 4–7 percentage points, a scenario where tailwinds continue to outweigh policy headwinds. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates later in the year due to sticky but manageable inflation, markets remain resilient near record highs driven by strong consumer income growth and a pricing dynamic that favors offshore equities. The analysts warn that aggressive tariff implementation poses a significant tail risk for growth and bond yields, yet they maintain that the current low recession probability supports a gradual upward drift in risk assets.
- Goldman Sachs53 min
The CARES Act and its Impact on the US Economic Outlook
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alec Phillips, Jan Hatzius, William G. Gale, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani, Bill Gale
On March 31, 2020, Goldman Sachs hosted a client call featuring Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and external fiscal experts to analyze the CARES Act and downgrade the 2020 U.S. economic outlook to a record contraction. The discussion detailed the legislation's targeted relief components, including expanded unemployment benefits, direct stimulus checks, and $46 billion in aid for the airline industry, alongside projections that Q2 GDP will fall approximately 10% with net debt-to-GDP rising above 100%. Despite these severe short-term headwinds, experts concluded that low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's potential $4.5 trillion lending capacity would likely prevent a sovereign debt crisis.