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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Shutdown’s Economic Impact
A partisan role reversal has precipitated a broad federal government shutdown as Democrats withhold support for clean spending bills to demand the extension of ACA health insurance subsidies, a move that polling suggests is driving voter blame toward Republicans. The crisis faces a critical resolution pressure point on October 15 when active-duty military personnel miss a pay cycle, a deadline that historically compels congressional action to avoid widespread economic disruption. While the shutdown projects to reduce Q4 GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points and delay key economic data releases, market analysts and the Federal Reserve anticipate the stalemate will resolve quickly through a targeted fiscal compromise.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
US presidential elections outlook: Implications for policy and markets
Joe Wall, Alec Phillips, Alison Nathan
The 2024 U.S. presidential election, held on November 5, presents significant market volatility risks as former President Donald Trump leads the Republican primary against Nikki Haley despite facing 91 criminal indictments. The general election outcome will likely be decided by seven competitive states, with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at historically high levels that could impact Democratic margins in a race where economic concerns regarding inflation and tariffs dominate voter sentiment. Political analysts project that a divided government or an all-Republican victory is more probable than a Democratic sweep, with fiscal policy heavily dependent on whether the 2017 tax cuts are extended and how proposed tariffs are implemented.