Joe Wall

US presidential elections outlook: Implications for policy and markets

Joe Wall, Alec Phillips, Alison Nathan

The 2024 U.S. presidential election, held on November 5, presents significant market volatility risks as former President Donald Trump leads the Republican primary against Nikki Haley despite facing 91 criminal indictments. The general election outcome will likely be decided by seven competitive states, with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at historically high levels that could impact Democratic margins in a race where economic concerns regarding inflation and tariffs dominate voter sentiment. Political analysts project that a divided government or an all-Republican victory is more probable than a Democratic sweep, with fiscal policy heavily dependent on whether the 2017 tax cuts are extended and how proposed tariffs are implemented.