Latest Interviews
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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
The recession question
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Speaker Series for Interns: Senior Economists from Global Investment Research
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan
Jan and co-speakers assess the post-2009 global economy as significantly improved from a Depression scenario yet still hampered by insufficient stimulus, premature fiscal tightening, and slow central bank responses. While US growth is forecast to accelerate to roughly 2.7% by mid-2014 driven by housing and demographics, supporting equity upside despite rich valuations, Europe and Japan face subdued growth and inflation challenges requiring more aggressive monetary easing. The analysts predict the Federal Reserve will hold rates near zero until early 2016 due to hidden labor market slack, whereas emerging markets are navigating a painful 12-to-18-month correction phase before resuming their long-term role as primary global growth engines.