Brett Nelson

Outlook for Equity Markets

Brett Nelson, Jake Seward

Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group asserts that the current equity market is not in a bubble despite rich valuations, attributing stability to a 2.9% implied equity risk premium and low Treasury yields below the 3.0% to 3.5% recession threshold. While forecasting a robust 6.5% GDP growth with only a 10% recession probability, the firm anticipates post-pandemic earnings expansion to be partially tempered by potential corporate tax hikes. Consequently, Goldman Sachs advises investors to remain fully allocated to equities but to shift their allocation toward undervalued value stocks using dollar-cost averaging rather than waiting for market pullbacks.