Jeffrey Currie

The Case for Commodities: ‘Super-Backwardation,’ Structural Demand and Inventory Shortages

Jeffrey Currie, Allison Nathan, Jeff Curry

Markets in early 2022 face a critical commodity supercycle driven by decade-long underinvestment in traditional energy and metals sectors alongside surging demand from decarbonization and restored low-income consumption. While central banks signal tighter monetary policy, physical supply deficits in oil, agriculture, and base metals have already pushed Brent crude above $90 with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices reaching $105 by the second half of the year. This divergence between paper market skepticism and tightening real-world inventory levels creates significant investment opportunities in physical commodities as a primary inflation hedge against potential supply-driven economic slowdowns.