Jerome Dortmans
Showing 1–3 of 3 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
Energy Disruptions Are Here to Stay
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, the oil market has stabilized around $80–$85 for Q3 as investors focus on fundamental product deficits rather than headline volatility. While crude supply shocks have been partially mitigated by Russian export growth and strategic stockpiles, severe tightness in diesel and heating oil inventories threatens to sustain elevated prices through winter. Market analysts project a potential price dip to the $70s in Q4 if diplomatic progress occurs, though a significant supply response is unlikely before 2027 due to the long timeline required to rebuild global inventories.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
How to Trade Oil Now
Oil markets are currently navigating a binary valuation dependent on a potential memorandum signing, which determines whether prices stabilize near $95–$105 or re-price higher following a 30-day sell-off window. While the April ceasefire has removed the immediate risk premium on infrastructure, refined product shortages and yield shifts are expected to constrain European jet fuel supplies and sustain elevated summer prices for at least three to six months. Investor sentiment has subsequently pivoted from directional trading to downside hedging, anticipating that full supply normalization and a bearish market scenario will not materialize until nine months post-conflict.
- Goldman Sachs13 min
$120 Oil Ahead?
Goldman Sachs' Jerome Dortmans warns that the Iran conflict has disrupted 20% of global oil and LNG output, creating unhedgeable supply shortages that could deplete strategic reserves within days. He forecasts prices will surge toward $100–$120 per barrel if the disruption persists beyond three days, with diesel and jet fuel facing the most severe immediate constraints. Dortmans cautions that market complacency is dangerous, predicting material inflationary impacts that will primarily affect major importers like China and India as geopolitical priorities shift away from Western refining systems.