Jonathan Seaford

Treasure Hunters: Discovering Value in Volatile Markets

Stephen Toy, Jonathan Seaford, Steve Shapiro, Tad Revell, James Reynolds

Panelists including Steven Toy, Tad Revell, and Steve Shapiro characterize the 2013 private equity and credit markets as mid-to-late cycle environments defined by record leverage, tripled GP counts, and compressed risk premiums that mirror pre-crisis excesses. While consensus views plain vanilla high yield as unattractive due to valuation risks, experts identify immediate opportunities in non-auction distressed deals, the U.S. shale energy sector, and undervalued fixed income instruments like non-agency mortgage securities. To prepare for an anticipated wave of defaults and rising interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months, firms such as Golden Tree are raising dedicated distressed funds and advising general partners to secure long-duration capital to exploit the projected market dislocation.