Karen Richmond Jones

Why the world’s population is heading for collapse

Mike, Henry, Corbin Duncan, Karen Richmond Jones

Global fertility rates are converging below replacement levels across two-thirds of the world, driven by a societal trend in lower-income nations rather than a temporary fluctuation. While the UN projects a population peak of 10 billion in the 2080s based on assumed recovery, alternative models indicate that sustained low fertility could bring this peak forward to the mid-21st century, precipitating severe population losses in regions like East Asia. This demographic shift also reflects complex outcomes in the United States, where declining teen births and delayed childbearing among educated women have altered age structures without signaling a universal rejection of parenthood.