Marino Valensise

Risk-Free Return or Return-Free Risk: The Hunt for Yield

Simon Smiles, Marc Barrachin, Roger Gray, Robert Kricheff, Marino Valensise, Bob

Following the 2016 US election, panelists argue that secular stagnation has ended, signaling a regime shift toward fiscal expansion and rising yields as central bank stimulus wanes. This macroeconomic divergence prompts investors to abandon the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of private assets, high-yield credit, and emerging market equities to capture liquidity premiums and higher returns. Specific recommendations include overweighting US high yield and syndicated loans while avoiding duration risk in investment-grade debt, with long-term strategies focusing on robotics, fintech, and infrastructure to navigate a volatile, positive-correlation environment.