Mike Divavar

The Credit Recovery: Uneven, Unequal, Uncertain?

Mike Divavar, Bill Friend-Carrstairs, Leslie Cowan, Joe Nagar, Jim Zelter

Panelists from Fortress, GoldenTree, Apollo, and Varday outline a K-shaped credit recovery driven by deep dislocations between equity valuations and distressed debt spreads across sectors like aviation, energy, and commercial real estate. These institutional investors are leveraging specialized infrastructure to acquire undervalued assets in emerging markets and structured credit, targeting high returns while navigating central bank dependency and the risks posed by zombie companies. The consensus projects a multi-year reconstruction phase where private credit expansion and complex asset management strategies will capture significant market share as traditional markets transition from liquidity crises to solvency challenges.