Pete Lyon

Private Markets at an Inflection Point

Pete Lyon, Michael Brandmeyer, Alison Nathan

Driven by a structural shift in private markets where holding periods have elongated and distributions remain below historical averages, industry leaders anticipate normalization by 2026 as liquidity channels diversify and Fed rate hikes subside. While public market rallies have temporarily compressed private equity alpha, the asset class maintains resilience against equity volatility and serves as the primary hub for innovation, supported by a secondary market projected to double in size. Goldman Sachs predicts that sustained earnings growth and easing debt conditions will eventually trigger a gradual increase in IPO and M&A activity, potentially surpassing 2021 deal volumes within three years if geopolitical stability is restored.