Sven Jari Stehn

An Update on the Economic and Public Health Implications of Coronavirus for Europe

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. David Heymann, Sven Jari Stehn, Silvia Ardagna, Peter Oppenheimer, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani

Hosted by Goldman Sachs on March 26, 2020, a panel of infectious disease experts and economists analyzed the severe impact of the coronavirus on Europe, highlighting Italy's high mortality due to demographic factors and early hospital overload while noting a potential 9% GDP contraction in the Euro area by year-end. In response to the crisis, European central banks and governments deployed unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures, including unlimited asset purchases and corporate loan guarantees, though fragmentation within the Eurozone contrasted with more coordinated US actions. Despite the deepening economic downturn, equity strategists noted that market valuations have reached historic lows, projecting a high probability of double-digit returns over the subsequent 24 months as earnings decline stabilizes.