Tamay Besiroglu

AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, Scott, Daniel

Tame Bessaroglu and Ege Erdog argue that explosive economic growth will result from the coordinated scaling of labor, capital, and data rather than a sudden "intelligence explosion," predicting full remote work automation by approximately 2045. They contend that hardware constraints and supply chain integration, rather than software capability alone, limit progress and make pausing development economically counterproductive due to the trillions of dollars in lost utility. The speakers further predict that AI firms will achieve superior scalability through high-fidelity knowledge replication, eventually driving a broad integration into global supply chains that could increase global GDP by orders of magnitude.