Caution or Optimism: Can AI Counter a Potential Economic Slowdown?

Summary

• 2.5 billion gigabytes of data are created daily, equivalent to more than 19 million 128GB iPhones.
• 1.3 billion photos are shared on Instagram daily.
• 150 million U.S. credit card transactions occur daily.
• 300 billion emails are sent and received every day.
• 1 billion hours of YouTube content are streamed daily.
• 8.5 billion searches occur on Google daily.
• 22.3 million packages are delivered by UPS daily.
• Global GDP is estimated to be 14% higher in 2030, reaching $15.7 trillion.
• Productivity improvements from AI are projected to increase GDP by $6.6 trillion by 2030.
• Product enhancements from AI are projected to increase GDP by $9.1 trillion by 2030.
• AI enables scanning 2,100 square feet of farmland per second to reduce herbicide costs.
• AI instantly predicts protein shapes to aid drug discovery.
• AI tools diagnose sepsis.
• AI evaluates sensor data to predict equipment failure before it occurs.
• Augmented reality assists technicians with real-time, hands-free, interactive 3D wiring diagrams.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.6%.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is forecasted to be 5.0% in 10 years.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is forecasted to be 4.1% in 20 years.
• Households added $5.1 trillion in debt since the Great Financial Crisis.
• Corporations added $8.5 trillion in debt since the Great Financial Crisis.
• The Federal government added $24.8 trillion in debt since the Great Financial Crisis.
• The 1-year break-even inflation rate is 4.3%.
• The 3-year break-even inflation rate is 2.7%.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are tracked as inflation metrics.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated recent data has not materially changed the picture of solid growth.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted there is no urgency to adjust rates because growth is strong.
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated it is smart for the Fed to take time in cutting rates.
• Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated less easing of policy this year may be warranted.
• The Federal Reserve removed "moderated since early last year" from job gain descriptions.
• The Federal Reserve kept "remained strong" in its job gain descriptions.
• The Federal Reserve expects it will not be appropriate to reduce the target range until gaining greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
• The Federal Reserve remains data-dependent and will balance risks.
• Almost all Fed participants judged it appropriate to move policy to a less restrictive stance at some point this year.
• The Fed discussed but made no decision on slowing the pace of balance sheet runoff.
• The Fed plans to slow then stop the decline in reserve balances when they are above a level consistent with ample reserves.
• December 2023 SEP projected 2024 PCE inflation at 2.4% and 2025 at 4.6%.
• March 2024 SEP projected 2024 PCE inflation at 2.4% and 2025 at 4.6%.
• March 2024 SEP projected 2024 Real GDP growth at 2.1%.
• March 2024 SEP projected 2025 Real GDP growth at 2.0%.
• March 2024 SEP projected Longer Run Real GDP growth at 2.6%.
• Consensus estimates for Q1 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.5%.
• Consensus estimates for Q2 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.0%.
• Consensus estimates for Q3 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 1.4%.
• Consensus estimates for Q4 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 1.2%.
• Consensus estimates for 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 1.5%.
• Consensus estimates for 2025 U.S. GDP growth are 2.2%.
• Stifel estimates for Q1 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.8%.
• Stifel estimates for Q2 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 1.9%.
• Stifel estimates for Q3 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.4%.
• Stifel estimates for Q4 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.2%.
• Stifel estimates for 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 1.8%.
• Stifel estimates for 2025 U.S. GDP growth are 2.7%.
• Goldman Sachs estimates for Q1 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.8%.
• Goldman Sachs estimates for Q2 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.5%.
• Goldman Sachs estimates for Q3 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.4%.
• Goldman Sachs estimates for Q4 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.7%.
• Goldman Sachs estimates for 2024 U.S. GDP growth are 2.4%.
• Goldman Sachs estimates for 2025 U.S. GDP growth are 2.9%.
• Hourly earnings year-over-year change is 3.1%.
• The S&P 500 index level is 3% needed to reach the previous high.
• The S&P 500 trades at a 17% premium to its 10-year average.
• The S&P 500 trades at a 2% discount to its 10-year average.
• 40 major elections are scheduled worldwide in 2024.
• The U.S. Presidential Election is a key event in the 2024 global election supercycle.
• 48 Senate seats are held by Republicans.
• 49 Senate seats are held by Democrats.
• 213 House seats are held by Republicans.
• 218 House seats are held by Democrats.
• 23 Senate seats are up for re-election.
• 10 Senate seats are up for re-election.
• All 435 House seats are up for re-election.
• 4 House seats are vacant.
• 3 House seats are held by Independents.
• 40% of the world's population will vote in 40 national elections.
• Taiwan manufactures