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Federal Reserve FEDS Notes

Last published 3d ago

  • 3d agoU.S. Private Credit Vehicles: Institutional Structure and Aggregate Balance SheetsFederal Reserve FEDS NotesThe expansion of private credit has become one of the most significant developments in financial markets over the past decade. Yet, estimates of the size of the market vary considerably, in part because the term private credit is used to describe different instruments, investment strategies, and financial intermediaries.
  • 3d agoGold Reserve Relocations: Are They Always Bad News for U.S. Dollar Reserves?Federal Reserve FEDS NotesThis note reviews several publicized gold reserve relocations by central banks in the Netherlands, France, and Germany since 2013 and any concurrent changes in their U.S. dollar reserve allocations. Generally, the choice of where to custody gold reserves may in part reflect the perceived risk of sanctions or expropriation in the jurisdiction of custody alongside other considerations like the proxi ...
  • 3d agoA Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes: U.S. Tariffs and Exports from Canada and MexicoFederal Reserve FEDS NotesThe 2025 U.S. tariff increases were followed by sharply different export outcomes in Canada and Mexico. Comparing the 12 months ending in April 2026 with calendar year 2024, Canadian goods exports to the United States fell about 10 percent, while Mexican exports rose about 16 percent, even though Mexico faced a higher average tariff exposure (figure 1). Do these contrasting outcomes mean that tari ...
  • 3d agoThe Effect of Oil Prices on Core Inflation: Recent Evidence from the Advanced EconomiesFederal Reserve FEDS NotesElevated oil prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty have renewed interest in a longstanding policy question: do supply shocks like oil-price increases pose a transitory or a persistent threat to price stability? This note sheds light on this question by providing new evidence on whether the inflation process has changed.
  • 1w agoTreasury Issuance and Dealer Balance SheetsFederal Reserve FEDS NotesPrimary dealers play an important role as intermediaries in Treasury securities and repo markets, and demand for their intermediation rises on issuance dates. Recent increases in Treasury issuance have raised questions about dealers' capacity to meet this increased demand.
  • 3w agoGovernment Bonds’ Safe-Haven Property and Inflationary PressuresFederal Reserve FEDS NotesEarlier this year, escalation of the conflict in the Middle East resulted in sharp declines in major stock indexes as energy prices rose and the global economic outlook deteriorated, but prices of long-term government bonds in major advanced economies also declined (Figure 1). This prompted some commentators to question the premise that government bonds in these major advanced economies will rally ...
  • 3w agoRipples in the Reserve Pool: Unveiling Liquidity Signals from the Federal Funds MarketFederal Reserve FEDS NotesWhen the Federal Reserve shifted to an ample-reserves framework, many observers started to question the relevance of the fed funds market. With reserves ample or abundant and rates anchored by administered floors, interbank borrowing declined sharply, and the market appeared to serve mainly as an arbitrage venue for non-bank institutions.
  • 3w agoIntroducing Private Credit into the Financial Accounts of the United StatesFederal Reserve FEDS NotesOver the past decade, private credit has played an increasingly important role in providing funding to middle-market businesses. While there are several definitions of private credit, here we define it as privately negotiated loans to businesses that are originated by nonbank investment funds rather than by traditional financial intermediaries such as banks.
  • 4w agoThe Rise of Semiliquid Funds for Retail InvestorsFederal Reserve FEDS NotesInvestment funds differ in how investors can access their capital. The redemption rules governing how and when investors can withdraw have evolved endogenously in response to shifting investor demand and regulatory constraints. While the immediate liquidity of open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds has long dominated the retail market, the landscape has been evolving over time.
  • 1mo agoConvenience Yields, Risk Premiums, and the Interpretation of Oil Futures Prices During Times of Geopolitical ConflictFederal Reserve FEDS NotesEarlier this year the Middle East conflict led to one of the largest global oil supply shocks in history (Bordoff and O'Sullivan, 2026). Past empirical research has found that commodity futures prices provide accurate predictions of future spot prices under normal market conditions (Reeve and Vigfusson, 2011; Chernenko et al., 2004).
  • 1mo agoBeyond the Current Account: U.S. Financial Flows and Global ImbalancesFederal Reserve FEDS NotesGlobal imbalances have returned to the center of international policy discussions, including at the G7 and G20. These discussions have traditionally focused on current account (CA) balances and, in particular, on the drivers and consequences of persistent trade surpluses and deficits.
  • 1mo agoAssessing Monetary Policy Globally: Evidence from LLMs and Semi-structural ModelsFederal Reserve FEDS NotesOver the past decades, central bank communication has become an increasingly important component of modern monetary policy frameworks. Policy rates, asset purchases, and balance-sheet tools remain central to the transmission of monetary policy, but speeches, press conferences, forward guidance, and other forms of public communication have all played a direct role in shaping expectations about the ...
  • 1mo agoInformal Support Networks in the Survey of Consumer FinancesFederal Reserve FEDS NotesInformal support networks, the interpersonal connections through which families provide or receive financial and practical assistance, constitute a critical but often invisible component of the U.S. economy. These networks can serve many of the same functions as wealth: shaping key economic decisions around saving, spending, and labor supply and providing an important buffer against adverse shocks ...
  • 1mo agoHeterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume among U.S. HouseholdsFederal Reserve FEDS NotesPrecise estimates of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) are central to understanding economic activity and the effects of economic shocks on households. However, the literature does not yield a consensus on either an aggregate MPC or the extent to which MPCs vary across the population.
  • 1mo agoMeasuring Spending in the Survey of Consumer FinancesFederal Reserve FEDS NotesThe United States has long lacked comprehensive household spending data across all types of households. Data sources whose primary purpose is to measure spending routinely miss the highest-income and wealthiest households (Bee, Meyer, and Sullivan, 2015; Sabelhaus, Johnson, Ash, Swanson, Garner, Greenlees, and Henderson, 2015; Pfeffer, Schoeni, Kennickell, and Andreski, 2016), while data sources t ...