Doing Business in Space: Six Areas of This New Economy
Summary
- The space economy is developing rapidly through productive competition between private companies and governments.
- Launch costs have fallen from over $50,000 per kilogram in the Space Shuttle era to under $3,000 today.
- Next-generation reusable heavy-lift rockets may expand payload capacity & lower costs further.
- Satellite networks are extending broadband access to remote communities, aircraft, & ships.
- Direct-to-device services are in early development to allow ordinary smartphones to connect to satellites.
- Satellite data supports weather forecasts, navigation, & observation for agriculture, insurance, & construction.
- Governments invest in space-based communications, surveillance, & missile tracking for national security.
- The proposed Golden Dome missile-defense system will rely on space-based sensors & communications.
- Orbital data centers could ease constraints on land, power, & water but face hurdles regarding cooling, radiation, & cost.
- Google launched the Project Suncatcher prototype on October 1 to test AI processors in radiation & thermal conditions.
- Microgravity enables new manufacturing possibilities for pharmaceuticals, optical fiber, & specialized materials.
- Innovative manufacturing & travel concepts, including intercontinental travel & space tourism, may reach commercial scale over a 10-30 year horizon.
- The space economy connects themes of Productive Competition, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, & Securing Strategic Resources.
My team and I regularly publish our long-term investment themes to help investors understand how changes in the world may create investment opportunities over time. One of our subthemes, Space Race, sits within Productive Competition, reflecting our view that rivalry can drive innovation and create value for consumers and the economy. Space is one area where such competition is on display.
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