John Stephenson’s Top Picks for Nov. 11, 2026

Summary

• John Stephenson of Granite Point Research identifies a stealth bear market driven by tech volatility, recommending defensive sectors like oil, gas, pipelines & utilities.
• Top picks for November 11, 2026, include Parex Resources (PXT), Valero Energy (VLO), & TransAlta (TA).
• Parex Resources features a 40% share count reduction over six years, a ~6.5% dividend yield, ~83 mboe/d production, & exposure to >3 billion barrels of oil in place via the Casabe/Llanito JV.
• Valero Energy is highlighted as a best-in-class refiner with leading margins, a $10 billion buyback authorization, & capital returns exceeding 40-50% of the CFO payout target.
• TransAlta reported Q3/26 adjusted EBITDA beating consensus by ~8% despite Alberta power prices falling ~30% YoY, with 2026 guidance intact.
• TransAlta's Boreal data center project potential scale increased to ~1.6GW (from ~1GW), presenting an AI-driven growth opportunity, while the 700MW Centralia coal-to-gas conversion targets early-2027 FID.
• TransAlta trades at ~9.5x EBITDA compared to an ~11.5x peer group average.
• Past picks from July 22, 2026, include Surge Energy (3% return), Kelt Exploration (3% return), & Highwood Asset Management (0.7% return), averaging a 3% total return.
• Personal & family portfolio disclosures indicate no holdings in PXT, VLO, or TA, while a holding exists in KEL.