John Waldron on GDP Growth, AI, and the M&A Outlook

Summary

• Goldman Sachs recorded this discussion on November 3, 2026, featuring President \& Chief Operating Officer John Waldron \& Senior Strategist Allison Nathan.
• Business leaders \& investors remain generally optimistic but are more cautious than six to 12 months ago due to higher inflation, higher rates, \& geopolitical challenges including the situations in Iran \& Ukraine.
• The cost of capital \& the cost of doing business are higher, yet nominal growth in the US is projected to exceed 6% with real growth forecast at 2.5% plus or minus.
• Companies are raising significant capital to invest in AI infrastructure, with the US consumer market showing strong resilience across end, wholesale, \& enterprise sectors.
• A bias for scale is driving corporate M&A, with transactions expected to grow 30% to 35% this year to reach a record level.
• M&A activity includes both offensive strategies to build scale in growth areas \& defensive strategies involving spins, carve-outs, \& sales to private equity firms.
• European sentiment is poor due to politics, energy security issues, \& excess supply from China, while Asian markets like Japan show buoyancy \& optimism.
• Goldman Sachs identifies financing for AI build-out, decarbonization, \& private sector capital formation as key growth opportunities as governments become less relevant due to leverage.
• The firm is deploying a four-pronged AI strategy focused on employee literacy, software development efficiency, organizational automation via digital agents, \& client-facing tools.
• Goldman Sachs plans to accelerate AI deployment in 2027 following a strong start in 2026, partnering with LLM providers \& hyperscalers for compute capacity.
• Recent acquisitions of Industry Ventures, Innovator, NEO Investments, \& LCN Capital Partners aim to fill gaps in asset classes, solutions, \& distribution capabilities.
• The firm is developing systematic playbooks for integrating acquisitions while prioritizing cultural fit to ensure new talent feels part of the "One Goldman Sachs" environment.
• Goldman Sachs maintains its status as a human capital organization where digital agents serve to make the firm more resilient \& scalable rather than replacing human judgment.
• The firm advises young finance professionals to cultivate intellectual curiosity, embrace AI tools, \& remain open-minded to learn quickly in a rapidly changing work environment.