Lower-income wage growth cooled, but remains ahead

Summary

• Lower-income household wage growth eased to 4.5% year-over-year in September from 4.7% in August.
• Middle-income household wage growth rose to 3.8% year-over-year in September.
• Higher-income household wage growth increased to 3.7% year-over-year in September.
• The gap between income groups narrowed due to modest shifts in wage growth across terciles.
• Lower-income households remain at the front of wage growth compared to previous K-shaped patterns observed in 2025 & 2026.
• Data is based on Bank of America aggregated consumer deposit account data & transaction records.
• Household income terciles are determined by quantitative estimates & periodically re-assessed.
• Payroll growth estimates account for differences between overall population growth & customer account growth.
• Bonus growth estimates are derived from inbound ACH payroll transactions exceeding 50% of median regular payments.
• The job-to-job change rate measures the proportion of customers with an identified employer change relative to total employment income.