October in Review

Summary

• The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, accelerating from 2.2% in the second quarter.
• Inflation accelerated in September with the consumer price index rising 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, driven largely by higher gasoline prices.
• September payrolls increased by 29,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
• Retail sales rose 0.8% in September, though sales excluding gasoline increased only 0.2%.
• The S&P 500 finished October 0.9% lower, resulting in a year-to-date gain of 11.75%.
• Large cap value stocks gained 6.9% in October while large cap growth stocks declined 3.0%.
• Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 29.6% with gains across 10 of 11 sectors.
• European equities rose 0.4% while Japanese equities fell 4.2% in the reported period.
• Emerging markets fell 8.1%, pressured by scrutiny of AI-related valuations in technology-heavy Asian markets.
• The two-year Treasury yield fell 30 basis points to 4.59% while the 10-year yield fell 36 basis points to 4.93%.
• The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% with two officials favoring a quarter-point increase.
• Investment-grade corporate spreads widened while the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index rose 2.4%.
• West Texas Intermediate oil prices ended at $104.1 per barrel, up 15.2%, due to Middle East tensions.
• Gold prices fell 6.8% to $3,874.62 per ounce as expectations of further Fed tightening weighed on demand.
• The U.S. dollar rose 0.4% against a basket of major currencies.
• Bloomberg U.S. 1000 Value Index returned 6.87% for the month while the Bloomberg U.S. 1000 Growth Index returned -3.00%.
• Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bills (1-3 Months) returned 0.36% for the month.
• Bloomberg Corporate High Yield Index returned 0.30% for the month.
• Wilshire U.S. Real Estate Securities Index returned 4.80% for the month.
• Bloomberg Commodity Index returned -0.08% for the month.