Payrolls growth continues into May

Summary

• Bank of America account data indicates payrolls growth continued into May 2026.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 172K in May.
• April payroll increases were upwardly revised to 179K.
• The three-month average pace of job gains reached 188K.
• Bank of America's payroll growth estimate based on customer paycheck accounts rose to 1.4% year-over-year in May.
• Early signs of wage gains are visible in Bank of America data, potentially creating a tailwind for consumer spending.
• Part of the recent hiring uptick may be tied to the FIFA World Cup 2026, suggesting current strength could be temporary.
• Job growth may moderate after the summer if the FIFA World Cup influence fades.
• Bank of America payroll data is not seasonally adjusted, while BLS and ADP data are seasonally adjusted.
• Bank of America payroll estimates are derived from changes in the number of customer accounts receiving a paycheck, adjusted for population growth differences.
• Bonus growth estimates are calculated by identifying inbound ACH payroll transactions over 50% higher than the median regular payroll for customers receiving payments in the last two years.
• Income terciles (lower, middle, higher) are based on quantitative estimates and periodically re-assessed.
• Generations are defined by birth year ranges, with Gen Z born after 1996 1.4% year-over-year in May.
• The report was published on 08 June 2026 by the Bank of America Institute.