Payrolls improve across the pitch in June

Summary

• June payroll growth remained strong based on Bank of America deposit account data showing a 1.7% year-over-year increase.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a modest rise of only 57,000 jobs in June.
• Job growth acceleration occurred in both cities hosting FIFA World Cup 2026 games and non-host cities.
• Host cities experienced a larger pickup in job growth in 2026 relative to the second half of 2025 compared to non-host cities.
• Bank of America payroll estimates use a three-month moving average, while BLS & ADP data are seasonally adjusted.
• Bank of America payroll data is not seasonally adjusted.
• Payroll payments data includes channels such as ACH, bill pay, checks, & wires.
• Small businesses in the report are defined as clients with under $5mm in annual sales revenue.
• Data is not adjusted for seasonality, processing days, or portfolio changes unless otherwise stated.
• Overall total card spending growth is partially boosted by growth in the number of active cardholders.
• Per household card spending growth only includes households completing at least five transactions in a month.
• Overall total card spending includes small business card spending, while per household card spending does not.
• Household consumer deposit data is derived from a fixed cohort of households with accounts from January 2019 through the current month.
• Spending data is classified using Merchant Categorization Codes mapped to the North American Industry Classification System.
• Services necessity spending includes childcare, rent, insurance, public transportation, & tax payments.
• Discretionary services include charitable donations, leisure travel, entertainment, & professional/consumer services.
• Holiday spending is defined as items where November-December spending is usually at least 20% of total annual spending.
• Higher value transactions are estimated using a threshold based on the top 30% of transactions by value in 2024.
• Household income terciles are periodically re-assessed based on factors like wage inflation & social security payments.
• Generations are defined by birth years, with Gen Z born after 1995 & Traditionalists born pre-1946.
• Payroll growth estimates are based on the change in customer accounts receiving a paycheck with an adjustment for population growth.
• Bonus growth estimates identify payroll transactions over 50% higher than the median regular payroll payments received around the same time in the last two years.