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Stifel Insights·

The State of the U.S. Agricultural Sector

Summary

  • Agriculture accounted for nearly 7% of the U.S. economy 25 years ago but currently represents only around 4.5%.
  • The industry has shifted from a locally grown model to one dominated by international suppliers & big business distributors, increasing vulnerability to global supply & price shocks.
  • The U.S. relies heavily on foreign markets for fertilizer needs, with imported usage percentages of 97% for potassium, 87% for nitrogen, & 82% for phosphorus.
  • Fertilizer prices have surged due to Middle East conflicts preventing 30-40% of supplies from reaching the market, with urea up 36%, liquid nitrogen up 33%, & ammonia up 30%.
  • Diesel fuel prices used for transportation are up 41% to $5.32 per gallon.
  • Analysts warn that the current impact on farmers may be more severe than in 2022 due to lower crop prices & the non-deferrable nature of fertilizer inputs during the spring growing season.
  • 70% of farmers report struggling with increased fertilizer costs.
  • Nearly one-third of Midwestern farmers need to secure additional fertilizer despite higher pre-booking rates, while Southern producers pre-booked 19% of needs & Western farmers pre-booked 31%.
  • Northeastern farmers pre-booked less than one-third of their fertilizer needs.
  • Average farm real estate values reached a record $4,350 per acre in 2025, up nearly 40% since 2020.
  • Current farmland value support stems largely from federal disaster & economic aid rather than stronger fundamentals.
  • Small family farms accounted for 86% of all farms & 40% of total acreage in 2024 but generated only 17% of the industry's total financial output.
  • Large family farms comprised 5% of total farms but produced 50% of total value.
  • Nonfamily farms made up 3% of U.S. farms but produced 14% of all farm output value.
  • Farmers received just 5.8¢ for every dollar spent on food products in 2024, with crop farmers taking home 2.5¢ & livestock producers receiving 3.3¢.
  • Food processing & food services capture 16.1¢ & 38.6¢ respectively of every $1 spent on food.
  • Corporations like ConAgra, Cargill, & Tyson exert significant control over the agriculture system through contract growing arrangements.
  • Foreign investors held over 46 million acres, or roughly 4%, of total U.S. agricultural land in 2024.
  • Foreign ownership of U.S. farmland has jumped 110% since 2017, averaging 2.4 million acres per year.
  • Canada is the top foreign owner of U.S. agricultural land with 16 million acres, followed by the Netherlands & Germany at 10% each.
  • The share of imported U.S. food & beverages has more than doubled from 7% in 1993 to 15% in 2025.
  • Americans import 80% of seafood, 59% of fruits, & 35% of vegetables consumed annually.
  • American farmers produce 81% of meat products, 97% of livestock, & 64% of crops consumed each year.
  • Most fruit imports come from Mexico (37%), while the majority of vegetable imports come from Mexico (54%).
  • The U.S. produces nearly 90% of beef consumed, with the remaining 10% imported from Australia, Canada, & Mexico.
  • 315 farms filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy in 2025, a 46% jump from 2024.
  • The Midwest region had the largest share of bankruptcies with 121 farms in default, a 70% rise from 2024.
  • Agriculture & related industries contributed $1.1 trillion, or 4.6%, to real GDP in 2025, a 3.2% decrease from the prior year.
  • Farming output totaled $157 billion in 2025, accounting for about 0.1% of U.S. GDP.
  • As of May, 2.3 million people were directly employed in agriculture.

The State of the U.S. Agricultural SectorAgriculture accounted for nearly 7% of the U.S. economy just 25 years ago but is currently only around 4.5%.

Keywords
Economic Insight