Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - DUOLINGO INC
Thank you for watching. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Say good morning in French. Bonjour. I eat pawns for breakfast. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Duolingo's Q3 Earnings Webcast. Today, after market close, we released this quarter shareholder letter, a copy of which you can find on our website at investors.duolingo.com. On today's call, we have Luis Van On, our co-founder and CEO, and Jillian Munson, our CFO. They will begin with prepared remarks before we open the call for questions. Analysts may ask a question by using the raise hand feature. Please note that this call is being recorded and all participants are currently in listen only mode. Before we begin, please note that we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events and financial performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings and are based on our assumptions we believe to be reasonable as of today. We undertake no obligation to update them. We will also discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between the two can be found in our earnings materials and we encourage you to review them when evaluating our performance. And now I will hand it over to Luis. Thanks, Debbie, and thank you all for joining. We had a great Q3. Daily active users accelerated for a second quarter in a row to 29% year-over-year growth, up from 23% in Q2. Bookings, revenue, and profitability were also ahead of expectations. At the beginning of the year, we laid out a plan to prioritize teaching better and user growth, knowing it would take time to see results. We're now seeing the user acceleration we hoped for, and i'm proud of how our team has executed against our strategy we expect this momentum to continue with year-over-year dau growth in q4 similar to q3 and q4 bookings slightly ahead of our previous guidance every new learner expands the audience we can monetize over time while teaching better and user growth remain our top priorities for this year we're gradually leaning more into monetization in ways that preserve the quality of our free experience our ambition is to ultimately reach one billion learners and build a much larger business over time. The more people we can teach, the bigger that opportunity becomes. With that, I'll turn it over to Jillian. Thank you, Luis, and glad you're all here this evening. We started the year with an ambitious plan to re-accelerate our growth, and our Q3 results show we're executing well. The numbers from the quarter are pretty straightforward, so I'll double-click on just two items. First, a look at how broad our DAU and bookings growth was. Year-over-year DAU growth accelerated across eight of our 10 largest countries. Additionally, year-over year subscription bookings growth was in the double digits in the majority of the regions we serve. Secondly, Q3 operating expenses include an $11 million bonus accrual. This bonus rewards our team for re-accelerating user growth. We're on track to hit the targets, so we've begun to record the expense. A second portion of the bonus is included in our Q4 guidance, and we expect to pay the full bonus in early 2027. Turning to Q4, we expect year-over-year bookings growth of 13%, revenue growth of 14%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.1%. To help you build your models, I want to give you just a couple items to consider. We expect gross margin to fall slightly from Q3 as we roll out video call to all paid subscribers. Operating expenses will likely grow faster than revenue because of our continued investments and the second portion of the bonus I just mentioned. As a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be roughly flat year-over-year at $84 million. For the full year, we expect to deliver 12% year-over-year bookings growth and 18% revenue growth paired with a 26.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. We plan to provide our full outlook for 2027 in February. We are encouraged by the momentum we're seeing in our business and look forward to answering your questions. Back to you, operator. We will now move to our question and answer session. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please click on the raise hand button, which can be found on the black bar at the bottom of your screen. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by lowering your hand. When it is your turn, you will receive a message on your screen asking to be promoted to a panelist. Please accept, wait a moment, and once you have been promoted, you'll hear your name called and you may unmute your video and audio and ask your question. Your Zoom application may disappear momentarily. This is expected and your window will reappear. We are allowing analysts one relevant follow-up to their main question. We will now pause a moment to allow the team to gather and assemble the queue. Your first question comes from Yagal Arunian. Please unmute your video and audio and ask your question. Hi, Yagel. Hey. Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess I want to maybe start with the MAU growth that you guys are seeing and expect to continue and to, and to fork you a number of levers you guys are pushing here. And maybe if you could just kind of quantify or qualify, you know, what, what, what the biggest drivers are between the new partnerships and the games and you know the juniors toy hunt and those kinds of engagement features that you're driving. And then just a second part of that question any difference in terms of monetization or retention or other KPIs that you're seeing from these partnerships? And should we expect you to do more of those? Thanks. Okay, yeah. Thank you for the question. So first of all, the majority of our growth for this year comes from product improvements. We've in the past discussed our notion of the green machine, which is basically an optimization system that we have that just makes the app better over time. Basically every week the app has hundreds of new A-B tests that make it a little better. And the vast majority of our improvement in active users comes from improvements in retention because of that, the products getting better. Now over the last few months we've had a few events that are also very important and important to call out. One of them was the Streak Revival last quarter. This quarter we had the partnerships with Brawl Stars and also Eggie Party. party and they did bring users but you know i really want to emphasize that you know we just believe that the majority of of it is from improvements to the app which is why we think that this is going to continue you know going forward um in terms of um the uses that we get from these partnerships the you know they retain very well um and part of the reason for that is because we we did some product work to make it so that the way these partnerships work is that you're a player of Brawl Stars or whatever the game that is partnering with us is. You come to Duolingo to get rewards for that game, for Brawl stars, for example. But in order to get the rewards, we get you to stay multiple days on Duoligo. And what that does is it builds a habit. And so we see that these players that are coming in have very good retention. And I think as you think about both DAU and bookings, I think what we've been talking about is how broad-based the growth was in the quarter, both from a geographic perspective in terms of how the product's working. We're feeling really good about the broadness of the growth we're seeing in the business across both DAU and monetization. Yeah, I mean, we're basically growing across all regions and we accelerated across eight of our top 10 markets in terms OFDAU growth. So we're very happy with that. Great, thanks so much for taking my question. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Wyatt Swanson with DA Davidson & Co. Please unmute your audio and video and ask a question. Thanks, guys. Could you guys give some color on the paid subscriber additions relative to daily active users? Paid subs growth has continued to slow year-over-year despite DAUs picking back up. Is that predominantly a function of extended free trials or could you give any additional color on that and whether you expect those trends to change at all? I'll cover the subs numbers, and then maybe you can talk a little about the trends in there. The way to think about subs numbers is they largely follow the revenue. So they're kind of an average in there, so the subs numbers tend to follow that revenue growth. So in terms of subs growth, probably that bottoms in a couple quarters as we work through the bookings from prior to this quarter. So as we rebuild the booknings growth, that revenue growth will come after it and those subs growth numbers will come as well so it's just that's just like it's sort of a math thing uh mostly and then louise maybe you'll talk a little bit about sort of how bookings are going in your term yeah i mean the we started the year with a very clear strategy to prioritize teaching better and user growth um and we've you know and it's very hard to re-accelerate user growth and and we're very proud of the fact that we have done that um but But we also, at the beginning of the year, we said, look, our bookings are going to fall within this box of somewhere like 10% to 12% year-over-year growth. We're in the higher end of that. We feel pretty good about that. But we just have not been concentrating very much on monetization. But what we have done in monetization this year is try to invent new ways of monetizing that are more DLU aligned. And the good news is that we have found a number of them. One of them is longer free trials, like you mentioned. There are others, for example, monetizing the avatar suits like we talked about. That does really well with IAPs. And there's just a number of other things that we're going to be doing. And we're slowly starting to monetize more that way. Another thing that we are really excited about is Chess is completely under-monetized. We're going be monetizing it. Chess, we're very proud. We just hit 10 million daily active users in Chess. So it's now a relatively significant amount of our users are doing chess, and we think there's a lot of low-hanging fruit there. Got it. Thanks, guys. Your next question comes from the line of Ryan McDonald with Needham & Company. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Hi, Ryan. Hi, how's it going? Thanks for taking my questions. You know, Luis, I'm just wondering if you could kind of provide a little more color on sort of in the early days of the testing of moving video call to super Duolingo, what you're seeing in terms of user engagement there, or even conversion, and then how that sort of informed your view about the decision to sunset Duolingomax here. Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, you know, when we first started Duolingo Max, a higher subscription tier, what we did, we had to start it because we had some AI features that were just very expensive to serve. I mean the cost of these AI features was high. We did say back then that if we managed to bring the cost down, we may put these features in other tiers. What happened was that the premium feature of Duolingo Max, which was video call, when we first launched it, it was costing about 30 cents per call, just generally on AI inference. We've managed to reduce that cost to well under one cent per call. And that's mainly by moving to open source models or open weight models. So we feel really good about that. And that allowed us to put video call in super. And that was actually a really good thing. When we A-B tested that, it's good for revenue, but also it allows us to give video call to about 10 times as many users because we just have many more super subscribers than we have max subscribers. And that's good because that means 10 times as many people are learning better, they'll tell their friends, etc., etc. So we just view this as very positive. And because of that, and when we tested, we actually just tested a sunsetting max, it it it was very clear that the right decision was to sunset max so we've started doing that um we don't we don'T think you know in the short term we DON'T think this is going to have a major bookings impact um it's slightly positive it's not a major bookings effect but in the long term we think this IS really going to help us because more and more people are going to get super i mean this is one of the main reasons why people are gonna get super so we feel pretty good about that yeah and i think what's interesting about the process we've taken here is that we've worked down the exposure to max fairly significantly so the vast majority of our bookings now is not max it's it's single digits in both in terms of the number of paid subscribers and the bookings there so it's become a very small thing that we're gonna we're going to manage and we've obviously shown this year that we can manage these things quite well and jillian maybe just assumptions for sort of like churn as you're going through the process and is this something that you're gonna of push out sort of all at once to existing max subscribers or are you just going to do it gradually upon renewal thanks so uh we have stopped really essentially stopped selling max to new users we will be uh moving max individual to super family at a similar price so they will be getting the ability to add their friends and family and all the great features that you have in Max moving over to super. And then that will just leave us with Max family, which we will be ending the year with, which is the smaller portion of bookings and paid users that I mentioned before. So we've really managed down that process. And again, kind of to what Luis's point was, is as we go test this, it ends up being net positive for us. And the short term, we managed through it, but you've seen we've managed down the exposure there and we feel really good about our ability to manage it. Awesome. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Shweta Kajuria with Wolf. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Hi, Shwetha. Good to see you both. Thanks for taking my questions. Can I please try two? One is a follow-up on Booking's growth. So how do you think about this lag between DAU growth and Booking growth? As we think about Booking growth catching up, how should we be thinking about it as we think of 27. And then the second one is on gross margins. Is 72% the guidance that you provided, Jillian, a good run rate now that video call transition will happen when we think about costs coming down, but at the same time, usage for video going up? Is it a good run rate sort of a margin to think of? Thank you. Yeah, I'll let Jillian answer the gross management question for bookings growth growth um you know our users monetize over time uh generally when we have a new user you know there's some chance that they're going to sign up and and pay for the subscription but you know many of them it just takes you know sometimes years to monetize so we're just very happy with the fact that we have us a much larger user base now active user base that will eventually try to monetized we're not giving guidance for 27 just yet uh but i think the thing we're saying is we feel pretty good about our bookings growth and we're starting to concentrate more on monetization now that we have really managed to re-accelerate DAU growth. Yeah. And in terms of the gross margin, obviously not guiding to next year, but yeah. But if you think about this year, gross margin we thought it would be about two points lower. The AI costs have not been as high as we thought, which is great. And we're still putting AI-based features like video call out to all of our paid users by the end of the year. So we feel really good about our ability to manage that. I would say our appetite to give AI-base features to our customer base is very high. We think there are really creative things we can do with it. So sort of like you saw this year, we'll manage this to an overall plan, but again, not giving next year's guidance. I Would just say we do have an appetite to give as much as we can to customers, and you've seen us do that this year. Okay, thank you both. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Smielek with J.P. Morgan. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Hi, Brian. Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Just two quick ones from my end. Last quarter, we had talked about current improvements at all-time highs and new cohorts retaining better. Just curious, any updates you have there, especially as the velocity of DAU growth starts to accelerate, what have, you know, the overall CUR trends look like on a cohort basis. And then, Jillian, just briefly on paid marketing as well, I believe up nicely year on year as you gain greater efficacy. Can you just talk about some of the LTV to CAFRs that you're seeing and where you're deploying marketing spend by channel? Thank you. Yeah, I can talk a little about CUR. I mean, we mentioned CUR last quarter. It is a metric that we're very proud of. And it is the main metric we optimize to increase daily active users, to increase retention of the app. We don't want to get into the business of guiding CUR and giving updates in CUR every single quarter. So we're not talking about the precise numbers, but it basically keeps increasing. And that is the majority of the DAU growth that you see comes from increases in curve. And then on paid marketing, this has been a real success story of our team this year. So just to put it in perspective, paid marketing is about 60% of our non-comp marketing spend, which is a bit over $100 million. We're profitable on that marketing spend. But we continue to believe we have more room to build upon the LTV CACs that we look at for the business. In terms of where that money is spent, it's really pretty broad based. And we move it around fairly actively in terms of what is creating good returns for us. And the team continues to do that really effectively. So I think the net on paid for Duolingo is it's probably never going to be the majority of how we go to market. That's just not how we think about it. But it's a really helpful tool. And our team has done a really good job. And we're feeling that we're getting better and better returns on it and getting smarter on it. So it's been additive to us in 2026 and will be probably again in 27. Yeah, I should say for, you know, internally, this is one of the biggest wins we've had this year that we became actually intelligent about performance marketing. And I'm very happy about that. Awesome. Thank you. Your next question comes from Mark Mahaney with Evercore. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Mark, hello. Okay. Thank You. Let's try two questions. I know this video call functionality, as you're rolling it out across more of the super Duolingo users subscriber base, what have you seen so far in terms of the boost that's had to engagement and retention or satisfaction? I would assume that it's had a material impact. It's one of the reasons why as the costs come down, you're spreading it out. But what have you actually seen in the data so far? Is it too early to tell? And then secondly, I know you talked about chess earlier. So how about my second favorite topic, which is math? And how many users and I didn't see anything in here, but maybe it's in your press release. But the adoption you're seeing there, is there an opportunity there to also do a separate or combined price action? Thank you very much. Yeah, thank you for both questions. So video call, I mean, look, we feel really good about video call. It is a feature that actually teaches you conversation. And we see adoption of it uh you know continue to grow the team just keeps making it better and better and we see and you know one of the ways we measure it is just number of words spoken per active user not not proactive user video call but proactive user of duolingo and that number just keeps going up i mean it's it's kind of i think it's roughly doubled over the last year or so um so we feel pretty good about that and the other thing is we know that when people try video call during the free trial, for certain types of video calls that we tailor to the user's difficulty, then they are more likely to subscribe to actually pay for the subscription. So we feel really good about this. This is a feature that just keeps getting better. In terms of math, look, this is also my favorite topic. I love math. I love our math product. It keeps getting bigger and better. It's also a huge opportunity. there's about a billion people in the world learning math so i really think it's a huge opportunity it is it is growing uh about at the same rate as languages so i'm i'm happy that it is growing but i would hope that it can start growing at the rate that chess is growing which is growing faster um so we're going to continue making it a better teaching tool one of the things that we have found by the way is um this is not that big of a thing to learn but um people prefer to play the game of chess than to learn math. They're both good. I think they're both good, but hey. Thank you very much. Thanks, Mark. Your next question is going to be audio only from the line of Omar Dasuki with Bank of America. Please unmute your audio and ask your question. Hi, Omar. Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to elaborate a little bit on the gaming partnerships. You highlighted Brawl Stars and Eggie Party, which you said brought in millions of new users. How scalable is this approach? Have you approached a meaningful percentage of the top 100 mobile game developers out there? What is the economic incentive for a game publisher to collaborate with you, particularly that you're kind of competing for the same consumer attention, then I have a follow-up along the same lines. Yeah, so we're very happy with these partnerships. I mean, generally, you know, for a lot of partnerships, people come to us as opposed to us having to go to them. I mean just historically people really want to partner with us. So we're Very Happy. We think we're going to continue doing some of these. Now, it's not the case that there are, you Know, hundreds of such partners that we're gonna do. So we'll see it more. this is probably going to happen a couple of times a year. And they do bring users, and we're very happy with that. But most of our events, if you look at the plan for next year, most of Our Events are first-party events. These are our own things that we're going to do, things like avatar suits and stuff like that. In terms of what is the incentive for the game publishers, there's no money being exchanged in these partnerships. We didn't pay them, and they didn't pay us to do that. What we're finding with them, with these partnerships, is that it's a win-win for both. They get a bunch of users and we get a bunch of uses, so it doesn't seem like we're competing for that. And generally, the incentive is just cross-promotion. And for certain games, certainly the case for Supercell and Brawl Stars, they do a lot of things to keep their game fresh. And one of the things that they did when they did the partnership with us is for about a period of a few weeks, their entire game was just themed with Duolingo, and their players liked this. was a very positive thing in their community so that's the incentive for doing that i mean they they gained also a bunch of uh active users and and revenue okay and my follow-up is you know does this somehow dovetail with your performance marketing um because as we all know uh mobile games are a major driver of just the performance marketing uh you know within mobile gaming apps in general um so do you view you know this approach as sort of complementary to to that are you potentially looking to penetrate more of the gaming you know kind of audience and and bring those over you know through performance marketing and using this experience to aid that you know how should we think about that going forward for you it's a pretty big audience yeah um i i do think they're related and because you're right a lot of the a lot of the performance marketing ads are for games um certainly the ads we show in our product as well so we do think they're related um we did see when when the these partnerships were going on we did sea of performance marketing actually benefit from the partnership um so so we do see that i i don't think i i don't think we fully understand the the relationship in these two but i do think they are additive to each other Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you, Omar. Your next question comes from the line of Ron Josie with Citi. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Hi, Ron. I think you're muted, Ron? There you are. We hear you. Hey, you can hear me? Yeah. Yeah, hi. Perfect, thank you. Sorry about that. This is James Michaels, driven by Zantharan. Give an experiment per week who's faster than headcount left here. And you bring a machine who's driven two quarters of acceleration. Can you provide more color on the underlying changes in the architecture of the testing process and how much more throughput there could be as AI takes on more of the experiment design and analysis? Oh yeah, we're very happy about that If you look right now, um our uh the number of experiments that we ran call it the last month is up about 90 percent year over year compared to last year and our uh employee number grew by like 10 percent so per capita this is this is a major improvement a lot of that not entirely but a lot that is because of ai we're just seeing you know it took some time for the promise of uh you know ai encoding to actually turn into improvements in speed, but we are now seeing that. And we're seeing not just significantly higher experiment count, which I believe will continue going up and up and up, but also the latency, the time between, you know, an idea to it being in front of the users is much shorter now. And that allows us to iterate a lot. And I think that's extremely compatible with our, you know, our process of improvement because we just run a ton of A-B tests. And what's good about AI is it's particularly good at these smaller changes. You know, larger changes, a lot of times, it still kind of messes up. But the smaller stuff, it's pretty good at it. And we mainly run on, you knows, hundreds and hundreds of tiny changes. So we're finding it quite compatible with the way we operate. And this is why we feel pretty good about our ability to continue growing both our DAUs because of growth and retention, but also our monetization, because we're going to, my sense is next year, I don't know the exact quantity, but we're gonna run a hell of a lot more experiments next year than we did this year. Helpful, quick follow-up on that. Last quarter, you flagged shorter attention spans and testing shorter minimum session length. Has anything shifted here? And are you seeing down and down gains specifically from session frequency as well as retention? Yeah, we're working, this is something we're really working on. You know, we're not disclosing any of that, but we are actively, we have staffed teams now to try to increase engagement throughout, and we feel pretty good about that work. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Justin Patterson with KeyBunk. Please unmute your audio and video. Justin, how are you? I'm great, Luis. How are you doing? Also great. Great. Well, first off, congratulations just with the DAU progress this year. You've certainly come a long way within there. I guess as we head out of this year and into 2027, how do you think about just the right degree of friction and steps to put back into the app and steps to monetize so you don't repeat the lessons of 2025 within there? And I'll have one follow up. It's a great question. I mean, we're, we have a strict guardrail inside the company to not degrade the free user experience anymore. The good news is that we really, you know, we took this year to figure out how to monetize without degrading the free user experience and i think we just found a number of levers that work that that we feel pretty good about that um but yeah i mean this is this is a lesson learned we do not want to uh mess up the free user experience anymore and i don't believe that's going to happen got it and i'm thinking about just the decision to deprecate max in this way putting max users into the super family plan you know talk about just why that's the right choice versus the individual family plan or excuse me, the individual super plan. And then, you know, that creates the potential for more paid sharing, if you will, friends potentially sharing with one another. So I'd love to hear about how you're thinking of the guardrails in there. So these are truly net new people versus some canceling and just getting on a friend's plan. Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, the first thing to say is that at the moment, even though family plan is a pretty good deal when compared to the individual even though that's the case we like it because it has extremely high retention uh so over time it just it just you know we like the retention is really good and and it makes sense that the retention's really good if you have five people as long as one of them is still using it you know they kind of keep paying for the plan um so so that's why we like the reason we decided to move uh max individual to super family um was because they're roughly the same price so uh you know that allowed us to not have kind of a one-time uh decrease in in bookings from these people uh and for them we think it's a good deal i mean it's basically the identical features just you can invite five more people um and you know That'll happen And I'm sure there's some amount of cannibalization, but we're not really seeing that in the numbers. It's not material enough for us to see anything that is like, oh, this is actually bad for us. Because we've been A-B testing this for a little while, and it looks good. I think it speaks, Justin, to our confidence in the size of the market opportunity here. To be able to do that, and we're really not concerned that we're going to impact our market opportunity. I mean, we continue to be extremely bullish about what's ahead for us and the billion learners that we think we can touch. It's going to give us a much bigger business over time. Great. Thank you both. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Alec Brandolo with Wells Fargo. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Yeah. Hey, thanks so much for the question. Greatly appreciate it. You know, I think the other change this year to cheering beyond the deprecation of Max is the light year. I've been seeing white tier be kind of merchandised to me in my testing of the app pretty frequently in the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. So just any thoughts about your expectations around kind of white penetration next year and the state of the advertising experience in Duolingo right now would be great. Thank you. Okay, so it's light on that. We are testing it. We have not pushed it very far. And we may, you know, we may try to push it more. I mean, we're mainly driven by the results of our A-B test. And I think our A B test for light have just not been home runs. I think there's probably some wins there, but they just haven't been home run. So I don't actually know what will happen with, with light. It's a much cheaper plan that also has ads. I just don't know what'll happen. It may be the case that ends up only being served in certain regions, kind of probably regions with lower GDP per capita. But I don'T, I DON'T actually know at the moment, this is pretty small, and we just have not seen it be a major home run. But it's there. It's still being tested. In terms of ads, we feel very good about ads in terms of the team. We now have an actual serious team working on our own ads business. So we feel like next year, our ads business is going to do well. And just to remind you about our ads business, we had historically not invested much in our own ads. And so what we did is we just used these ad networks with kind of the lowest common denominator of ads. And what we're doing now is we are switching those to much higher quality ads. Now that takes some time to do. In part, we're doing it through this direct sales. We now have a direct sales team. It's not a very large direct sales team, but it's a very good direct sales team. But we're doing some of that. And also we're just switching the ads to higher quality ads. So the transition is going to take some time, but once we're done with the transition, you're just going to see ads that are significantly higher quality on Duolingo with kind of more well-known brands and higher quality brands. And in addition, that pay us more. I think over the long term, we feel actually pretty excited about our ads business. Yeah, and the team made some really nice progress during the quarter. So if you look at the full quarter, the ads business was sort of flattish, but actually it exited the quarter growing nicely so we think the team is making good progress there great thanks your next question comes from the lineup andrew boone with citizens audio and video and ask your question guys appreciate you taking the question um i wanted to go first in terms of following up on justin's question as we think about 2027 you guys clearly have transitioned from monetization now into engagement as we go back to in a monetization format should should we expect a change in terms of how you guys are going after that is that different in-app purchases are there any things that are now off limits like is it a restarting of the engine that was previously up and going or are you guys going to approach this differently and then just just my second question another follow-up but as we think about ai unlocking duolingo broadly louise is is the biggest needle mover for ai is it internal is it new products that become available and what happens as we've seen AI deflation kind of come through the model? Like what does that unlock for you in terms of internal processes that now become available maybe in a year or two years as we're seeing with video calls? Thank you. Great. In terms of monetization, I mean, I don't know exactly how to answer your question in terms if like, is it a restart? Is it, I've mean, we've been working on monetization this year. It's just we told the monetization team, look, you cannot degrade a free user experience anymore. We have to come up with new ways of monetizing. And they have. And that works, you know, that's working really well. So I think you're going to see us, first of all, the way you're gonna see us work is similar to how we've been working the whole time, which is we're going to run thousands of A-B tests to try to monetize better. The one thing that you're not going to See us do is add friction to the free user experience, but we're gonna do all kinds of things. Certainly there's IAPs in there. Certainly there is better ads in there, but there's also other things that get people to subscribe. You know, video call is a good thing. I mean, video called for the longest time was just available in Max. Now that it's in Super, I think we feel a lot better about merchandising it more often because it's a lot more affordable. I mean the reality is that Max was a pretty expensive plan. So we feel pretty good about that. But, you know, generally the type of work they're going to do is just a lot of A-B tests. Luis, I don't mean to interrupt, but does that imply that conversion rates then don't improve on a go-forward basis because you guys then need to grow with users without additional friction? I don'T know the answer to your question, whether we're going to be able to improve them or not. Obviously, we do want to improve conversion rates. I DON'T know. I feel like there are some things, you know, some of the things we've done this year have improved conversion rates, things like longer free trials improve conversion rights. And by the way, at the moment, we're not offering longer free trials to every user. We've kind of given them to some users. We're going to expand that further. So I do believe there's some increase in conversion rates. I don't know by how much, but what is true is that what you're not going to see us do is kind of squeezing users. You're not gonna see us doing that. Yeah. And I think, Andrew, you already saw in the quarter, we re-accelerated bookings growth in the quarter relative to last quarter. And, and I think you're seeing us be careful about how we go do all that. One of the things we've talked to you all about is that top of the funnel matters a lot. Top of the final converts at a multitude of the amount that the core base does. And so you've, That's why you've seen us work on things like paid marketing, some of these outreach things growing in new places and new products. And I think that's a piece of the puzzle, too, on an aggregate basis. And then your second part of your question was about AI. We are, you know, there's two places, and you mentioned there are two places that AI really helps us. One is just internal productivity. And the other one is AI features in the product. We're very happy about both. In terms of internal productivity, like I said previously in the call, we're just seeing our team be able to ship A-B tests much faster. And we're getting to the point where simpler A-D tests are now being shipped by non-engineers. So, you know, a person who's a product manager or a designer is now able to fully, from idea to it's in the app, They're able to do it now by themselves without the help of an engineer. Now, that doesn't mean we don't need engineers. We need engineers for all kinds of things, including the system. We built an internal system that allows us to do that. We're trying to make the system better and better. So we definitely have a major need for engineers. But the fact is that significantly more people are able to run their own A-B tests. And so I don't know the precise increase in a number of A-D tests we'll run next year, but it will be multiples of what we ran this year. Um, you know, I don't know if it'll be three X, I dunno if it will be 10 X. I don know because this, all this stuff keeps changing, but it will be multiples and so I'm very happy with that. And that I think is one of the things that we feel bullish about in terms of the product, um, you'll just see us put AI in a lot more places, um we're, we're working on a number of features, particularly for practicing speaking that are not just video call, um that, that you'll see there. And in addition to that, you'll just see improvements in how fast we can ship new teaching modules, let's call them. Like, for example, we're just going to teach a lot more chess, a lot of, you know, a little bit more of a lot. A lot more content. We'll just be able, we'll be able to just ship it way faster now. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Alex Sklar with Raymond James. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Great. Thank you. Yep. Hey, two-part question for me on gross margin. First, maybe for you, Jillian, just will the sunsetting of max have any impact on gross margin beyond what you've outlined in the fourth quarter? And then second, for you Luis, the mix of direct payments outside the app store, any change to how you're thinking about that opportunity, either just as a result of the rise in personal agents to drive traffic more direct to you or just more time in market testing? Thanks. So Alex, our guidance for the fourth quarter, which implies gross margin will come down just about a point-ish, is inclusive of the transition we're expecting on max. I think as you've seen our team do all year, we always have an eye to how do we get more efficient with our AI spend. But I think we also want to fit more AI in the product and then balance that to our bottom line. So you will, we believe, see some decline in the gross margin sequentially, but still a very attractive number. And we'll be able to put a lot more AI content in the product and do the max transition as well. Yeah. And in terms of direct payments, we do, you know, for the longest time, at least in our apps, I mean, we have an iPhone app, an Android app and a website. For the longest term, you can only do direct payments on our website. We can now do direct payments in certain regions and for certain users for our apps. We do use it in certain cases, and particularly one of the places where we're using it quite a bit is in performance marketing. When we acquire a user with performance marketing, we actually acquire them to a website and then get them to download the app. That's pretty standard practice. So you'll see us do some of that. I don't know, just by judging just by the number of people we have working on this, I don't know if this is going to be a major driver for next year. I mean, we do use them in different places, but it is not the case that at the moment we're like, we must switch everything to direct payments. That's not currently in the cards. Got it. And as it relates to kind of the record Q3 gross margin, you wouldn't attribute any of that to the growing mix of driving traffic directly to yourself? No, the main delta in the gross margin was better revenue and less AI costs than we expected going through. All right. Thank you both. Your next question comes from the line of Ross Sandler with Barclays. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Hey, guys. Luis, I wanted to go back to the big picture with AI. So we can all see that AI is progressing at a pretty massive clip. The models are getting better. The latency is getting faster. uh meta even followed you guys with kind of a sassy avatar uh launch recently um but you know the question i have is that like there's there's some academic research that says um one-on-one tutoring is sort of one of the best ways for anyone to kind of learn a new subject so you talked a little bit earlier about how you're going to integrate some of these uh you know more native ai interactive elements to the app right now it's been like kind of an add-on uh with video but i'm curious how you're thinking about like the long term could these become much more core versus kind of the tap and learn uh gamified tap and learning use case that that we started with at duolingo and you know how does that change i guess the business model for Duolingo as you integrate more of that? Just thoughts on that would be great. Yeah, it's a great question. And when we think about a lot, we know today, a few years ago, maybe four or five years ago we did a bunch of research that shows that Duoligo was about as good as a classroom for language learning. We've gotten better to the point where I'm pretty sure we're better than a classroom now, but we are today not as good as one-on-one human tutor. nothing has gotten as good as a one-on-one a good one-one-one human tutor is still better than where we're at now we think that over the next few years we will be able to be as good as a 1-on1 human tutor because we just see how much we're improving every year I mean the thing about 1-1-1 human tutors is that they're not improving they're like it's about as good as they be but we're improved so we think we're going to get there now there's something very important to mention, which is that to a large extent, even though one-on-one human tutors are very effective at teaching, to a larger extent, most people don't want to do that. I mean, there's a small fraction of people that are willing to dothat, but most people just don't wanna, even if it's given out for free. It's just, it happens that it's not that compelling of an experience on your mobile phone when compared to tiktok or instagram or whatever uh it's just not that compelling so you know what we want to do is we wanted to have something that is as effective as a one-on-one human tutor and we think we can do it but it will not look like a one on one human tutor it will in the end still feel gamified because ultimately the thing that is that is most important even though one-to-one human tutors are very effective efficient and effective the thing that is most important, the major failure mode, is people just dropping off. Like you can have a very effective one-on-one human tutor, but people just will be like, yeah, I'm gonna stop going to that. So, you know, what we're working on is it'll still feel gamified, but you will see a lot more AI in there for us trying to meet you where you are. I mean, by the way, the reason one-to-one human tutors are better than a classroom or better than what we do right now is that they are really good at adapting to you. And they do even things like they read your facial expression. When they're saying something to you, they can see that you're like, you look confused. So you don't even have to say anything. They quickly adapt to you." That's why they're so good. And I believe the technology to do that is just getting better and better, and we'll be able to dothat. It'll take some time, but we'll get there, I think. And then, Ross, the sheer number of users of Duolingo and the database we have puts us in a position to do the best that can be out there in the market. I think that's a really powerful thing that we have that just the incredible number of people who use us every single day and working off that data to come up with the exact right way to teach them. Yeah. I mean, that's, that'S a really good point. The data that we have in terms of people learning. I don't think anybody, well, we know we just, nobody has the amount of data of people that we do. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Feather with Morgan Stanley. Please unmute your audio and video and ask your question. Hey, everyone. Two on my end. First, when you talk about focusing more on monetization next year than you did this year, what does that actually mean internally? Is that more people dedicated to monetization tests? Is it changing the hurdles for what you accept? How should we think about what that actually means? And then second, just given the real success of the chess course, how are you thinking about new course expansion, both in terms of the timeline for you might pursue that a little more aggressively, but also the type of subjects you think would be applicable here may be different than what you had tried previously. Thank you. These are both great questions. What does it mean for Focus More on Monetization? I mean, this year was a unique year in that we told the whole company, look, what really matters is accelerating the AU growth. We have a huge opportunity ahead of us. We need to figure out how to accelerate user growth. And by the way, accelerating user growth is really hard. So, hey, let's go there. So we put a bonus for the whole company and we said, let us go and accelerate user growth. Next year is a little different. What we are telling everybody is we continue to focus on user growth because it is such a big opportunity ahead of us. But you know what else matters? Monetization. So I think you are just going to see more A-B tests related to monetization. And that is kind of how we are going to operate next year. in terms of new courses you know we're not announcing new courses at the moment what I will say is when we added chess already AI helped quite a bit and we were able to add chess you know from idea to being in the app in about nine months what I would say is that we know that we can do that even faster now All right. Looking forward to hearing more. Thanks, guys. Yep. Thanks. Your next question will be audit only from the line of Arvind Ramnani with Truist. Please unmute your audio and ask your question. Hi, Arvnd. Hi. Thanks for doing this. Yeah, I don't know why my video is not showing, but nevertheless, I just really want to ask about sort of these inference costs and DAOs, right? So you've had a nice jump in your in your uh day they use uh you know up like 30 percent uh what is that doing to inference cost per day to you right is is basically are you seeing your your cost per user coming down faster uh than ai usage um per user going up yeah we are seeing that i mean we we want to put a lot we have been putting a lot more ai in the product and we are are seeing costs per DAU come down quite significantly. The main reason is for the majority of our uses, open weight models are about as good as frontier models. There are some small cases where a frontier model is still needed, but for the majority of Our uses, the open weight modules are plenty good. So, you know, whenever we're able to switch from using a frontier model to an open weight model the cost savings are pretty high and we're able to do that quite a bit so our team has done a really great job at being responsible about that yeah no of course and and i think um you know you you you're not kind of at the forefront of it it seems like that's kind of what the more experienced or the most sophisticated users of ai are doing is they start with the frontier models and they eventually migrate uh you know particularly if you you kind know if you have a level of sophistication and and i guess kind of the other thing is uh you know you you want to put more ai uh in the free experience to drive the growth and and i think you've cited as one of the big reasons you uh you know kind of that the cost of video dropped like 90 95 or whatever so the question i want to ask is where does inference cost for your free user stop making sense right like inferences you can deliver that very inexpensively but it's a break point where inference cost per free user really doesn't make any sense and you say like yeah we we're going to stop giving this to the to the free user yeah um you know i guess the way i'll answer your question is that we are going to spend some on inference cost in free users next year uh it's not a ton but we are going to spend some on that because we do want to give some of these ai features to free users um but you know you call it single digit millions that we're going to spend next year on inference costs for free users on kind of live inference costs yeah and last question on this is uh are you still like and i'm not looking for the next quarter but are you still a few years away where your your business becomes large enough where you basically are going to own some of the compute over you how are you accessing this right are you using the ai clouds are using the inference providers are you doing this internally like like how how are you accessing the inference or the compute to do this yeah i mean it's all of the above i think the the majority right now is inference providers um but you know we're trying some internally so it's kind of all of the above but we'll we'll do what makes sense for the business um uh yeah yeah classic classic ab testing which is yeah yes all there's been very smart on that yeah the team is really creative on this um and has done a really excellent job at managing it yeah perfect yeah thank you very much your next your last question comes from the line of ralph sharkart with william blair please unmute your audio and video and ask your question oh hey jellen hey louise i jumped out of light so i apologize if you cover this but uh you mentioned on the call that you're going to be running multiple more tests in 2027 they reference like 90 percent testing year-to-date um i'm guessing that's mainly on the product side but can you sort of clarify also if that's on a monetization side but maybe the more important question is you know how are you able to run these tests next year at this scale and then also focus on the monetization you know do those experiments need to drop by i don't know a rate of half to 45 percent year-over-year growth but kind of walk us through you know the path how you can continue to run these experiments and drive monetization next year thanks a lot yeah so the way we improve the product is we we work on three main things um we do improvements to we call it user growth so that that usually is improvements in retention of the product that increases the daily active users we do improve improvements in monetization um and then we do improvement in teaching better in all in in these three buckets the way we work is we basically run a ton of ab tests in in each one of them with the aim of improving one of these things. So this particular A-B test is aimed at improving monetization. This particular A B test is a teaching better, et cetera. And we just run a lot of these at the moment, like we mentioned, we're about 90% higher than, you know, for the, for example, the last month we ran 90% more A B tests than we did one year ago. We believe that that will continue increasing. So just overall, we are going to be able for monetization, but also for you know teaching better but also for daily active user users we're going to be able to run a lot more experiments next year i don't know how many more because it depends on a lot of things how our processes um improve etc but it really is getting to the point where the bottleneck is you know you're starting to get kooky bottlenecks that were not the thing that we used to normally think about bottlenecks for example a bottleneck now is ideas i mean like even coming up with ideas of what to test we just we're we're that has become a bottleneck uh another bottleneck is when for example one of the things that we're able to do now is like we mentioned in a previous answer um we're unable to get non-engineers to actually launch an ab test um so like a product manager or a designer is actually able we built an internal piece of software that allows a product manager to just without the help of of an engineer do an entire change to them they're not large changes they're small stuff um but we're able to do that but you know another bottleneck comes what if that person uh is a product manager they introduce a bug to the app who fixes it because i don't think they'll know how to fix this so it's so this is the type our processes are going to have to change and we're in the middle of that like you know half of the half of the things i don'T even know the answer for what what it is the case what we're going to do but i do know that we're gonna be able to run you know some some integer multiple of the number of ab tests that we ran this year thank you yeah thank you very much i'm showing no further questions this concludes the q a section of the call i would now like to turn the call back to the host for the closing remarks just thank you all for for being here and thank you for the great questions and but especially thank you thank you to the team for the really great work so far this year. We're very proud of our results.
- Company
- DUOLINGO INC
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- DUOLINGO INC