Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call - ELDORADO GOLD CORP
Financial Performance:
- Revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $512 million, driven by a higher realized gold price of $4,326/oz compared to $3,527/oz in the prior year quarter.
- Net earnings attributable to shareholders were $118 million ($0.45/share), up from $56 million ($0.28/share) in Q3 2025; Adjusted net earnings were $127 million ($0.49/share) versus $82 million ($0.41/share).
- Production costs rose to $200 million (vs. $164 million prior year) due to higher royalties, costs at LaMac/Olympias, and pre-commercial costs at McElvenna Bay.
- Total cash costs averaged $1,415/oz sold; All-in-Sustaining Costs (AISC) averaged $2,050/oz sold.
- Net cash flow from operating activities was $135 million; Free cash flow was negative $191 million due to heavy investment in Scourios and McElvenna Bay ramp-ups, though established assets generated $98 million in free cash flow.
- Cash capital expenditures were $206 million at Scourios and $69 million at McElvenna Bay.
- Balance sheet liquidity stands at $672 million ($397 million cash + $275 million available under a $600 million credit facility maturing March 2029).
Guidance and Future Outlook:
- Revised 2026 production guidance for operating assets (excluding Scourios/McElvenna Bay) to 410,000–430,000 ounces.
- Revised 2026 Scourios guidance to 10,000–35,000 ounces of gold and 5–15 million pounds of copper, reflecting slower ramp-up.
- Maintained full-year 2027 outlook; expect to enter 2027 with Scourios and McElvenna Bay ramping, Olympias expansion coming online, and Kisladag benefits contributing.
- Commercial production targeted for late Q4 2026 for both Scourios and McElvenna Bay.
- 2027 sustaining capital for established assets expected to be $170–$190 million (up from previous $140–$165 million); combined sustaining capex for the full portfolio expected to roughly double established asset levels.
- No major construction projects or mine expansions planned for 2027; focus on capital allocation towards shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) and debt reduction once free cash flow turns positive, anticipated early H1 2027.
Business Segments and Product Lines:
- Scourios (Greece): Achieved first copper-gold concentrate (Sept 8); two of four required filter presses are operational with the other two expected online in November; project capital cost increased by $65 million to ~$1.425 billion total; stockpiles exceed 5 million tonnes.
- McElvenna Bay (Canada): Ramp-up continuing with average throughput at 70%; focus on solid-liquid separation and filtration; total project capital increased by $23 million to $975 million; commercial production expected late Q4 2026.
- LaMac Complex: Produced 52,748 ounces of gold with strong performance; AISC $1,436/oz; ORMAC becoming a key high-grade source.
- Kisladag (Turkey): Produced 22,713 ounces; lower grades due to mine sequencing and delayed waste removal; full agglomeration circuit commissioning expected H1 2027 to improve leach cycles.
- Olympias (Greece): Produced 13,430 ounces; 650k tonne expansion tie-ins planned for Q1 2027 with ramp-up expected H1 2027.
- FMC (Turkey): Produced 17,073 ounces; AISC $2,313/oz; development underway to extend mine life.
- Exploration: Tesla deposit exploration at McElvenna Bay underway to support technical report updates in Q4; full district potential remains a focus.
Market and Competitive Landscape:
- Scourios designated as a strategic project by the European Commission; first European-produced concentrate shipments expected to a nearby smelter.
- Off-take agreements secured for the bulk of the next 2.5 years with flexible terms allowing delivery upon plant readiness.
- Greek operations face strong inflation in the local construction sector but are insulated compared to Turkish assets; Turkish operations face significant currency volatility (Lira) and high inflation (20-30%).
- LaMac faces higher labor turnover due to competition in the Canadian mining sector, while Greek and Turkish sites benefit from stable local workforces.
Risks and Challenges:
- Project Delays: Slower-than-expected ramp-ups at Scourios and McElvenna Bay have delayed commercial production and increased costs ($160M absolute increase for Scourios, $23M for McElvenna Bay).
- Cost Overruns: Scourios incurred $65M in extra project costs and $95M in accelerated operating capital due to extended commissioning, workforce needs, and temporary power usage.
- Operational Issues: McElvenna Bay faced challenges in solid-liquid separation and filtration; Kisladag experienced lower grades and delayed access to high-grade ore due to mine sequencing.
- Macroeconomic Risks: Hyperinflation in Turkey and potential political instability; diesel price volatility impacting operating costs.
- Labor Market: Tight labor market in Canada driving up turnover and remuneration requirements at McElvenna Bay.
Management Commentary and Tone:
- CEO Christian Malau emphasized a new focus on "transparent reporting," "disciplined capital allocation," and "consistency," acknowledging delays without shifting blame.
- Management expressed confidence in the long-term value of the asset base, noting that 2027 production targets remain unchanged despite 2026 delays.
- Tone was pragmatic and constructive, highlighting the successful energization of Scourios and the operational viability of the filter press system.
- Management reiterated that 2027 will be a "breather" year for capital projects, focusing on shareholder returns and debt optimization.
Analyst Questions and Answers:
- Filter Press Milestone (Scourios): Confirmed that four filters are required for nameplate; two are operating, two more expected online within weeks; no other significant bottlenecks identified.
- Commercial Production Definition: Defined as 60-80% throughput, saleable concentrate production, and steady operations for 20-30 days; expected to be achieved Q4 2026.
- Capital Expenditure Clarification: Confirmed $183M absolute new capital spend for Scourios and McElvenna Bay combined (excluding reclassifications).
- 2027 Guidance Reconciliation: Management expects to maintain 2027 guidance ranges by leveraging high-grade stockpiles and the full agglomeration circuit at Kisladag; specific Q1 2027 guidance to be refined with new budgets.
- Shareholder Returns: Priority shifts to buybacks and dividends in 2027 once free cash flow inflection occurs (early H1 2027); share buybacks deemed attractive due to current undervaluation.
- Cost Inflation: Turkish inflation assumed at 20-30% for 2027; Greek/Canadian inflation expected at 3-5%.
Other Key Points:
- Scourios project is fully funded; a $30M contingency is identified but not expected to be utilized.
- Debt strategy includes refinancing higher-cost Foran debt and repaying the upgraded credit facility as cash flow improves.
- First filtered tails were announced as a critical milestone enabling continuous plant operation.
- The 2026 guidance revision reflects timing of ramp-ups, not a change in long-term design capacity or resource estimates.
- New technical report for McElvenna Bay (including Tesla resource) expected late Q4; updated technical report for Scourios expected end of Q1 2027.
- Company
- ELDORADO GOLD CORP
- Keywords
- ELDORADO GOLD CORP