Trucker shortage drives wages higher

Summary

• The trucking industry faces a limited supply of qualified drivers due to stricter licensing, training requirements, and tighter regulatory oversight.
• Transportation and warehousing payroll growth has accelerated since the start of 2026, with mid-sized firms experiencing the most significant increases.
• Rising payroll costs indicate persistent labor shortages that may drive higher wages, tighter capacity, and upward pressure on freight rates, particularly in the spot market.
• Bank of America payments data shows year-over-year payroll growth per client for transportation and warehousing sectors, with distinct trends for businesses under $5 million and those between $5 million and $50 million in annual revenue.
• The report methodology utilizes aggregated and anonymized Bank of America transaction data, including ACH, bill pay, checks, and wire transfers, to analyze spending by small and mid-sized business clients.
• Small businesses are defined as clients with under $5 million in annual sales revenue, while mid-sized businesses are defined as those with $5 million to $50 million in annual sales revenue.
• Data regarding merchant spending is classified using Merchant Categorization Codes mapped to the North American Industry Classification System.
• The publication was prepared by the Bank of America Institute with contributions from Liz Everett Krisberg and David Michael Tinsley.