U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Little Changed in October

Summary

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.1 point to 97.8 in October, remaining below the 53-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month.
• The Uncertainty Index dropped 6 points to 84, reaching its lowest level since December 2025.
• Expectations for the economy rose 2 points to 8%, marking the 24th straight month of positive sentiment.
• Expected real sales remained unchanged at 9%, matching the highest level recorded since June.
• Plans to expand business increased to 11% from 7% in September, the lowest level since May.
• Hiring plans rose to 18%, the highest level since July, while earnings trends fell to -23%, the lowest since March.
• Average selling prices increased to 33%, the highest since June, and planned price hikes rose to 37%, the highest since July 2022.
• Labor quality was the top business concern for 25% of respondents, followed by taxes at 21% & inflation at 17%.
• 48% of respondents reported difficulty finding qualified workers, a three-month high.
• 36% of firms reported positions they were unable to fill, matching the highest reading since July.
• Net compensation increases over the last three months rose to 29%, while 24% planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months.
• Taxes were cited as a top concern by 21% of respondents, the highest level since May 2021.
• The survey included 500 to 2000 respondents, with typical firms employing 10 people & reporting annual gross sales of approximately $500,000.