USDA projects lower global grain imports despite El Niño risk

Summary

• The USDA projects a roughly 1% year-over-year decline in global grain imports for the 2026/27 period.
• This projected decline would mark the first annual contraction in global grain imports since the 2012/2013 period.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a high probability of a very strong El Niño event this year.
• Strong El Niño years typically boost global grain trade, making the current USDA forecast an anomaly.
• The El Niño event could cause significant shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns that impact the agriculture industry.