CF Industries — First Nine Months 2026 Earnings Summary

Financial Performance:

• Net earnings for the first nine months of 2026 were $1.78 billion ($11.60 per diluted share), compared to $1.05 billion ($6.39 per diluted share) in the same period in 2025.
• Third quarter 2026 net earnings were $436 million ($2.87 per diluted share), compared to $353 million ($2.19 per diluted share) in the third quarter of 2025.
• Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $6.07 billion, up from $5.21 billion in the first nine months of 2025.
• Net sales for the third quarter of 2026 were $1.86 billion, up from $1.66 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
• EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026 was $3.00 billion, compared to $2.05 billion in 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026 was $3.01 billion, compared to $2.07 billion in 2025.
• EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was $822 million, compared to $671 million in 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was $833 million, compared to $667 million in 2025.
• Trailing twelve months net cash from operating activities was $3.08 billion.
• Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $2.03 billion.
• Gross margin percentage for the first nine months of 2026 was 43.0%, compared to 37.6% in 2025.
• Gross margin percentage for the third quarter of 2026 was 38.7%, compared to 38.1% in 2025.
• Cost of sales for the first nine months of 2026 was $3.46 billion, compared to $3.25 billion in 2025.
• Cost of sales for the third quarter of 2026 was $1.14 billion, compared to $1.03 billion in 2025.
• Average cost of natural gas in cost of sales for the first nine months of 2026 was $3.63 per MMBtu, compared to $3.34 per MMBtu in 2025.
• Average cost of natural gas in cost of sales for the third quarter of 2026 was $2.88 per MMBtu, compared to $2.96 per MMBtu in 2025.
• First nine months 2026 financial results included a $170 million gain from a litigation settlement.
• Sales volumes for the first nine months of 2026 were 5% lower than 2025, primarily due to lower ammonium nitrate, ammonia, and UAN sales.
• Sales volumes for the third quarter of 2026 were 7% higher than 2025, driven by higher UAN, urea, and other sales.
• Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2026, were $2.82 billion.
• Long-term debt as of September 30, 2026, was $3.22 billion.

Guidance and Future Outlook:

• Management expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive for producers in low-cost, low-risk North America in the near- and longer-term.
• Management projects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten over the long term as capacity additions under construction are not projected to keep pace with demand growth over the next four years.
• Full-year 2026 gross ammonia production is expected to be approximately 9.5 million tons.
• Full-year 2026 capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $1.3 billion, with approximately $950 million attributable to CF Industries excluding joint venture partner funding.
• The cost of the Blue Point One ammonia plant is projected at approximately $3.7 billion, with production expected to commence in 2029.
• The cost of Blue Point common facilities is expected to be approximately $550 million.
• The Yazoo City Complex is expected to resume operations during the first half of 2027.
• The Yazoo City Complex carbon capture and sequestration project is expected to start up in 2028.
• Chinese urea exports in 2026 are projected to be 2-4 million metric tons higher than in 2025.
• India is expected to import over 10 million metric tons of urea in 2026.

Business Segments and Product Lines:

• Ammonia Segment: Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $1.75 billion, compared to $1.47 billion in 2025. Sales volumes decreased due to lower global demand for phosphate fertilizer production and planned maintenance. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply and supply disruptions related to the conflict with Iran.
• Granular Urea Segment: Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $1.81 billion, compared to $1.41 billion in 2025. Sales volumes increased due to product mix favoring granular urea and higher starting inventory. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply.
• UAN Segment: Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $1.84 billion, compared to $1.60 billion in 2025. Sales volumes decreased due to lower global demand, production mix favoring granular urea, and the Yazoo City outage. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply and the Russia-Ukraine war.
• AN Segment: Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $196 million, compared to $340 million in 2025. Sales volumes decreased due to the Yazoo City outage. Average selling prices increased due to tight supply and a higher proportion of sales in the UK.
• Other Segment: Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 were $485 million, compared to $398 million in 2025. Sales volumes increased due to higher DEF and nitric acid sales.
• Gross ammonia production for the first nine months of 2026 was 7.2 million tons, operating at a 97% utilization rate of available ammonia capacity.
• The Courtright DEF FEED study is underway, with a final investment decision expected in 2027 if positive.

Market and Competitive Landscape:

• Global nitrogen purchasing slowed in the second quarter of 2026 but rebounded in the third quarter in North America, India, South America, and Europe.
• Buying activity was driven by higher corn and wheat prices and lower global nitrogen prices compared to earlier in 2026.
• Global nitrogen prices increased through the third quarter of 2026 due to higher demand against constrained supply.
• Only about half of average urea exports from the Middle East have exited the Persian Gulf region since the conflict with Iran began; supply is expected to remain below pre-conflict levels.
• Production from nitrogen facilities in Russia remains at risk due to the Russia-Ukraine war, with shipments constrained in the Black Sea.
• Approximately 37% of Europe's nameplate ammonia capacity was offline or operating at reduced rates in October 2026 due to high natural gas prices.
• Approximately 35% of ammonia capacity in Trinidad is being permanently shut down.
• Nitrogen channel inventory is low throughout the global system.

Risks and Challenges:

• The Yazoo City Complex incident in November 2025 caused an extended outage, impacting production and sales volumes.
• Higher maintenance costs and realized natural gas costs impacted cost of sales.
• Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war continue to constrain global supply.
• High natural gas prices in Europe and gas constraints in Trinidad challenge production economics.
• Construction of the Blue Point One facility and common facilities involves execution risks regarding schedule and budget.
• The Company faces risks related to the cyclical nature of the business, global commodity prices, and natural gas price volatility.
• Potential impacts from tariffs, trade relations, and regulatory changes on environmental and sustainability matters.

Management Commentary and Tone:

• Chris Bohn, President and CEO, stated the team executed exceptionally well in the third quarter, delivering strong safety performance and operating at high rates to meet deferred customer demand.
• Management highlighted the low-cost and low-risk North American asset base, tangible growth platform, and industry-leading free cash flow conversion.
• Management expressed confidence in creating compounding value by investing in high-return initiatives and returning capital to shareholders.

Other Key Points:

• The Company repurchased 3.0 million shares for $367 million during the third quarter of 2026.
• Total share repurchases for the first nine months of 2026 were 5.2 million shares for $612 million.
• Since the $2 billion share repurchase program commenced in October 2025, the Company has repurchased 8.6 million shares for approximately $890 million, with $1.11 billion remaining as of September 30, 2026.
• Construction on the Blue Point One joint venture commenced in August 2026.
• CF Industries holds a 40% ownership interest in the Blue Point One joint venture with JERA (35%) and Mitsui (25%).
• The Blue Point One joint venture is consolidated in CF Industries' financial statements, with cash held by the JV included in the balance sheet.
• A quarterly dividend of $0.60 per common share was declared on October 7, 2026, payable on November 30, 2026.
• CHS Inc. is entitled to semi-annual distributions from its minority equity investment in CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC, with an estimated $93 million distribution earned for the third quarter of 2026.
• The Company recorded a $170 million gain from a litigation settlement in the first nine months of 2026.
• The Yazoo City Complex carbon capture project is proceeding as scheduled.