2014 London Summit - Risk

Global Risk Assessment

• General Wesley Clark characterizes the current era as less stable than the Cold War, noting a shift from a "boring" unipolar world to one defined by competing political models and reshaping forces.
• Shaukat Aziz identifies the root causes of global risk as weakened global leadership, a lack of cohesion among the P5 (permanent Security Council members), and widespread deprivation (lack of income, hopelessness, and human rights violations).
• Tina Fordham argues this is the "riskiest time in 25 years," citing the return to territorial disputes (Crimea) and the rejection of post-WWII border norms (ISIS in Syria/Iraq).
• Sir Richard Dearlove highlights a decline in the international community's collective security capabilities and the diffusion of power to non-state actors due to technology, leading to disintegration where secure states do not exist.
• Professor Ron Waldman attributes rising biological risks to increased human encroachment on territories previously dominated by other species.

Ebola and Health Security

• The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has caused over 10,000 cases and 5,000 deaths, with Professor Waldman warning these numbers are underestimates due to a "data-free zone."
• Economic consequences include a projected GDP decline of over 5% in affected nations, severe disruptions to agriculture, transportation, and markets, and a rise in food insecurity.
• Regional impacts extend to neighboring countries (Nigeria, Mali, Senegal) and global markets, affecting prices of commodities like chocolate, bauxite, rubber, and palm oil.
• Professor Waldman notes that while the direct biological risk to developed nations with strong public health systems is low (e.g., the Texas case resulted in only two infected healthcare workers), the risk of "panic" and policy overreaction is high.
• Future containment relies on the anticipated rollout of an effective vaccine by spring/summer and effective medications, neither of which were prioritized until the current crisis.
• The broader risk is a systemic lack of preparation for pandemics; the Ebola outbreak remained uncontrolled for eight months despite early warnings.
• The "Global Health Security Agenda" is a new initiative aimed at addressing natural outbreaks, accidental laboratory releases, and potential intentional biological attacks.

Terrorism and Geopolitics

• Terrorist tactics are shifting from organized conspiracies to "spontaneous" individual actions (e.g., the jogger attack in London, Ottawa shooting), which are difficult for security services to predict or prevent.
• Sir Richard Dearlove warns of an ongoing "war of religion" (Shia vs. Sunni) in the Middle East that creates reverberations for Western Muslim communities, though the specific threat of Western-targeted Al-Qaeda has diminished.
• The panelists agree that terrorism is primarily a "hearts and minds" issue; military interventions often fail because they address symptoms rather than root causes like hopelessness and lack of state reaction.
• Shaukat Aziz argues that post-intervention vacuums left by Western powers (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya) have sown seeds for deeper conflicts and created havens for recruitment, as regime change often leads to state implosion.
• ISIS is described as a creation involving Ba'athists, terrorists, and religious zealotry, utilized as a tool in regional power struggles (e.g., the Sunni effort to undermine the Shia-dominated Iraqi government).
• Tina Fordham notes that public opinion shifts (e.g., a 20-point change after ISIS beheadings) can force policymakers into military interventions that strategic actors (like ISIS) may have anticipated to their advantage.
• The risk of weaponizing diseases exists as a "latent threat" due to historical Soviet research and potential knowledge leakage, though small groups face significant technical hurdles in actual weaponization.

Great Power Dynamics and Leadership

• Shaukat Aziz and General Clark identify the lack of P5 cohesion as a critical failure; the permanent members are currently in a "blocking and tackling" mode rather than collaborating on global solutions.
• General Clark analyzes Vladimir Putin's strategy as a "triple play" involving leverage over Iran (nuclear negotiations), Ukraine, and Syria (via air defense systems and support for Assad), using instability to extract concessions.
• Sir Richard Dearlove views Russia as politically and economically fragile (demographics, energy prices), but cautions against dismissing its immediate threat level, while predicting long-term instability in China's political system despite its economic rise.
• Tina Fordham counters that Russia is not on the verge of state failure, citing Putin's popularity and the "self-reliance" narrative, and warns that the U.S.-China relationship remains relatively stable despite regional tensions.
• A specific risk factor identified is the upcoming deadline for the Iran nuclear deal, where the lack of P5 consensus complicates potential military options or diplomatic extensions.

Energy and Economic Risks

• Sir Richard Dearlove and Tina Fordham cite the risk of conflict between Russia and NATO as the primary immediate danger, noting that current tensions are already causing economic hits to Europe.
• Fordham highlights the risk of a "triple-dip recession" in Europe due to sanctions and the disconnect between economic recovery and political stability (rise of populist movements like UKIP despite growth).
• General Clark argues Europe's economic stagnation is a self-inflicted wound resulting from a lack of leadership in energy policy, specifically Germany's refusal to utilize coal-to-liquid fuel technology to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
• Clark frames the long-standing U.S.-Saudi oil alliance as an "unholy bargain" that has inadvertently funded extremist ideologies, arguing energy independence could break this cycle.
• Shaukat Aziz dismisses the idea of appeasing all of Putin's demands, stating that "agreeing to everything" is not diplomacy and that sanctions impact Russia's reserves, creating a complex interdependence where Russia also needs revenue.

Future Outlook and Forward-Looking Statements

• General Clark emphasizes that long-term challenges (terrorism, cybersecurity, financial stability, China's ascent, climate change) require collective action, but the U.S. is hindered by a "viciously partisan political system."
• Sir Richard Dearlove identifies the rise of populist political movements across Europe (including the UK) as a major underlying risk to stability.
• Tina Fordham warns that the historical link between economic growth and political stability has broken, meaning growth alone will not prevent the rise of volatile public opinion or extremist parties.
• The panel concludes that non-state actors and borderless threats (viruses, terrorism) require a P5-led collective security framework that currently does not exist.
• Professor Waldman asserts that while the solutions to pandemics (detection, isolation, treatment) are scientifically known, the global risk remains the lack of timely preparation and investment in public health infrastructure.