Panel, Conference Presentation
2014 London Summit - Risk
Milken InstituteShaukat Aziz, Wesley Clark, Sir Richard Dearlove, Tina Fordham, Ronald Waldman, Philip Coggan
- Global political structures face potential reshaping due to forces changing the world, with Eastern Europe experiencing an enormous struggle that is altering global political organization.
- The period is described as the riskiest time in 25 years, marked by a weakening of global leadership, a lack of cohesion among the Permanent Five Security Council members, and non-state actors operating without effective governmental control.
- China and Russia are identified as major factors in the shifting landscape, with China aggressively expanding territorial claims in the South China Sea and Russia acting as a regional hegemon that may cut off gas to Europe this winter.
- Russia is characterized as politically unstable with appalling demographics and a fragile self-confidence, while China presents a significant anomaly between its economic development and political system that threatens long-term stability.
- Both Russia and China are projecting power as regional hegemons, creating tensions with NATO that pose a real risk of a triple-dip recession in Europe which is currently being underpriced in markets.
- Populist political movements are rising across European countries, including the UK, driven by a broken link between economic growth and political stability.
- The United States faces a viciously partisan political system that hinders constructive long-term policies while navigating a fixated focus on ISIS alongside political and Saudi agendas in the region.
- The U.S. relationship with Europe is deemed essential for managing global risks, with the prospect of the two coming apart predicted to cause much more change and risk.
- ISIS is characterized as a creation of Ba'athists and terrorists that is going to be contained but requires local governance; it seeks U.S. ground troops to fuel recruitment and funding.
- Future exit strategies from conflicts like Afghanistan and Iraq are often missing or incomplete, creating vacuums that sow the seeds of new conflicts and havens for terrorism where recruiting is easy after external regime change.
- Markets have effectively subcontracted geopolitical risk through unprecedented central bank actions and shifts in oil supply dynamics, though a return to disputes over borders and territory remains a concern.
- The global risk from biological events is increasing due to human encroachment on territories previously the domain of other species, with future pandemics potentially arising from accidental laboratory releases or intentional use.
- The Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia is expected to cause GDP to fall by well over 5%, requiring decades to rebuild, while chocolate prices in affected markets are expected to rise considerably.
- An effective Ebola vaccine should be available early next year and rolled out to scale by spring to early summer, with the epidemic expected to come under control and close more rapidly if effective medication is available.
- The risk of biological weaponization by small groups is currently latent, and deploying a communicable disease into the international airline system would be highly disruptive but not necessarily lethal.
- Organized terrorism capabilities have improved against diminished groups like Al-Qaeda, while spontaneous individual actions remain very difficult for societies to cope with.
- A war of religion between Shia and Sunni in the Middle East is expected to have reverberations in Muslim communities across all countries.
- The deadline for an extension on the Iran nuclear deal is occurring this month, with a failure to extend risking a return to rhetoric about attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
- Germany could restart its economy and the Eurozone economy by converting coal to liquid fuel, potentially ending dependence on Middle Eastern oil, while the U.S. faces a "war of religion" dynamic.
- Public opinion shifts can cause a 20-point shift in U.S. public opinion, transforming regional disputes into domestic terrorism issues.
- The loss of confidence in the ability to act together on macro issues like climate change, population growth, and regional crises is a significant challenge for the international community.
- Technology is diffusing power away from governments to smaller groups, which can have highly disintegrative effects, while the risk of biological agents being used intentionally has fewer answers compared to natural outbreaks.
- A new multinational initiative called the Global Health Security Agenda faces the risk of failing to secure enough investment for preparedness.