Conference Presentation, Panel
2015 CA Summit - Building Better People Movers: The Future of Transportation in California
- California aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by targeting the 40% originating from transportation, utilizing highway pricing mechanisms to fund transit, bike, and pedestrian improvements while extending public-private partnership legislation through 2027 and anticipating a 2024 completion for the Purple Line subway and airport connector.
- Electric vehicle adoption is projected to reach 3% to 3.5% of new car sales statewide and 10% in the Bay Area and Silicon Valley, with a goal of 1.5 million EVs on the road by 2024 representing 7% to 8% of all vehicles, driven by the expectation that the power grid is not coal-generated.
- Autonomous vehicle timelines vary significantly among industry players, with manufacturers like Audi, Ford, Nissan, and Toyota predicting availability between 2017 and 2020, Elon Musk and Intel targeting 2021 to 2023, the U.S. Secretary of Transportation forecasting 2025, Uber predicting 2030, and the IEEE projecting 75% of all cars will be fully autonomous by 2040.
- Regulatory discussions for autonomous vehicles are expected to commence in early 2016, while concerns remain regarding current technology readiness, high sensor costs, weather resilience, and the need for cost-prohibitive solutions to become viable for mass markets.
- Future mobility plans include modernizing public transit for seamless regional connections, introducing managed lane pricing on projects like the I-405 and North I-5, and the potential development of Hyperloop technology to revolutionize freight by moving containers in tubes alongside highways.
- Long-term urban planning expects a shift away from private car ownership and parking infrastructure by 2040, aiming to free up resources to ensure every Angeleno is within a quarter mile of a green space by 2050, while the DMV anticipates beginning regulatory workshops on autonomous operating rules in 2016.