Panel
2015 CA Summit - Rescuing the California Dream: Policies for an Affordable Future
- Housing starts recovery is anticipated to be nonexistent, with for-sale podium builds remaining at very low levels due to financing constraints.
- Rapid price appreciation is expected to prevent buyers from one to two years ago from affording homes today, particularly in areas with insufficient supply.
- Interest rates are projected to rise in the near future, while wage growth is required before new homebuyer segments can afford current inventory.
- Coastal land prices and development costs are expected to remain prohibitively high, making affordable housing construction impossible without government subsidies or incentives.
- Construction costs for underground parking are expected to persist between $30,000 and $35,000 per space, and Los Angeles affordability definitions are expected to stay in the $600,000 to $700,000 range unless city plans change.
- A severe labor shortage in skilled trades like framers, electricians, and plumbers is expected to continue despite the housing downturn, though wages for framers are projected to remain stagnant at $20 to $22 an hour.
- The market for buying multiple homes and reselling in other states is not expected to return to previous cycle levels, and the current 15,000 affordable units in Los Angeles are expected to exhaust their contracts in approximately five years.
- California's housing goal to build 100 million units by 2021 includes a target for 15% affordable housing, though specific implementation details are not elaborated.
- Economic growth is viewed as a necessary condition for economic well-being, yet new job opportunities for individuals with a high school degree or less are expected to be two million lower than the 63 million generated over the last 3.5 decades.
- Sixty-five percent of future jobs are expected to require middle-skill credentials, and the shelf life of knowledge is anticipated to shorten, necessitating more frequent training.
- Technical and occupational education programs are projected to yield average earnings of $68,500 five years post-completion, sufficient for a family of four, while the average career trajectory is expected to involve seven jobs.
- Los Angeles unemployment is expected to remain higher than the state average at 6.3% compared to 5%, driven by a low labor participation rate due to long-term unemployment and discouraged workers.
- Dramatically slowing immigration is expected to create an "age cylinder" with a growing elderly population and fewer young births, while the transferable skills for the creative economy remain focused on the "four Cs."
- Education funding per student is expected to remain among the bottom six or seven states nationally, prompting calls for state intervention to improve efficiency and avoid crises.
- Proposed revenue reforms regarding commercial property could generate a $9 billion increase, and a sales tax for pre-K funding is considered a viable strategy for workforce development.
- Regional coordination among colleges is planned to facilitate skill portability, and technical classes are expected to be reintroduced to high schools to maintain student engagement.