Manuel Pastor

The Post-COVID Recovery: California's Lagging Employment Rate

Grace Gedye, Julian Cañete, Reign Free, Manuel Pastor, Somjita Mitra, David Lesher, Matt Horton

California's Department of Finance, labor experts, and business leaders analyze the state's persistent 7.3% unemployment rate and structural labor shortages driven by childcare gaps, early retirements, and workforce migration to inland regions. Panelists project a 3.9% to 4% employment growth rate for the coming year, contingent on federal investments in the care economy and housing affordability while addressing risks from inflation and potential political shifts. The discussion highlights a fundamental recalibration of work where demand is shifting toward non-automatable sectors like elder care and cooperative business models rather than returning to pre-pandemic norms.