Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
2016 CA Summit - California Cities: Engines of Growth
Milken InstituteDonna Bojarsky, Gray Davis, Stephen Engblom, Miguel Santana, Darrell Steinberg, Ashley Swearengin
- Global urbanization is projected to accelerate with 75% of the population residing in cities by 2050 and an additional billion people moving to urban areas over the next 20 years, shifting the global paradigm from the "urban age" to the "resilient city age."
- Power is expected to devolve from federal and state governments to cities, which will become the primary engines of economic development, innovation, and governance, while the federal government may act as an obstacle regarding issues like homelessness and crime.
- City leaders will prioritize practical outcomes such as reliable transit and waste management over partisan politics, focusing on specific priorities and adopting a holistic inventory of environmental, economic, and equity factors.
- Infrastructure business models will shift from service provision to a "systems approach" encompassing design, build, finance, and operation, driven by public-private partnerships where private sector compensation is often tied to performance metrics like 1% to 3% of generated savings.
- Financing for public needs will increasingly rely on private capital and revenue bonds as public discretionary dollars are consumed by mandatory costs like pensions and salaries, necessitating a transition away from direct government asset management.
- Specific regional transformations are anticipated, including the impact of high-speed rail on Fresno over 20 years to improve access, the development of biotech ecosystems in Los Angeles leveraging major universities, and the evolution of downtown areas into mixed-use residential and commercial hubs.
- Cities will face divergent challenges regarding quality of life and safety, with projections that crime could reach critical levels in cities like Chicago while Los Angeles focuses on structural reforms like pension adjustments and containment strategies.
- Affordability challenges are expected to intensify in high-development cities like San Francisco, requiring cities to balance economic growth with the rising costs of living for young professionals and the elderly.
- Governance strategies will move toward using predictive analytics for policy evaluation in areas such as welfare fraud and pension scenarios, while employing "anchor project" strategies to catalyze larger infrastructure initiatives like the L.A. River project.
- Future leadership will require incorporating diverse sector representation, fostering collaboration to shed reputations as purely government towns, and managing specific large-scale community projects like a transformed Pershing Square within approximately ten years.
- Significant disparities in access to risk capital are expected to persist, with inland cities like Fresno facing greater challenges in securing funding compared to established markets like the Bay Area and Los Angeles.
- Cities will act as primary builders of the public safety and built environment ecosystem, constantly evaluating how to match private capital with entrepreneurial ideas while accepting that government should not attempt to manage every asset or solve every issue directly.