2024 US Election Insights | Global Conference 2024

Uniqueness of the 2024 Election:

• Marks the first time in over 100 years two former presidents are contesting the office.
• Involves the oldest and second-oldest men ever elected to the presidency.
• Features a candidate (Trump) under criminal indictment and a candidate (Biden) facing questions regarding age and capability.
• Panelists note this election mirrors 1968 regarding unpopular leaders, unpopular wars (Gaza/Vietnam), and student protests.

Core Issues at Stake:

• Economic Security: Daily affordability, inflation, and cost of living (housing, insurance, utilities) are primary drivers for swing voters.
• Border Security: Ranked as a top-two issue alongside inflation in all seven key swing states.
• Abortion Rights: A major turnout intensifier for Democrats, though potentially secondary to economic concerns for some swing voters.
• Governance Structure: Fundamental divergence between the Republican focus on individual liberty, tax extension, and deregulation versus the Democratic focus on social safety nets and regulation.
• Judicial Branch: The composition of courts and federal agencies is a critical long-term stake for both parties.
• Fiscal Stability: Paul Ryan predicts a potential debt crisis requiring entitlement reform and a bipartisan fiscal commission.
• Global Alliances: Significant risk of erosion in NATO and European alliances under a second Trump term.

Candidate Attributes and Polling Trends:

• Trump's Advantages: Leading in attribute testing regarding strength, crisis management, and economic acumen; leading by double digits in some swing states among independents.
• Biden's Challenges: Facing significant disapproval, particularly among young voters (CNN polling shows an 11-point deficit to Trump among youth, a 31-point swing from 2020).
• The "Double Hater" Phenomenon: Polling indicates low approval for both candidates, suggesting a decisive block of 10-15% of voters who dislike both but must choose.
• Third-Party Impact: RFK Jr. is viewed as a "spoiler" who will likely siphon votes from Trump, particularly among Republicans who opposed his nomination.
• Legal Proceedings: Trump's criminal trials may not impact the election outcome for his base, but the spectacle risks alienating swing voters who find the behavior disqualifying.

Demographic Shifts and Coalition Risks:

• Black Male Voters: Van Jones warns of a "screaming problem" regarding black male turnout due to unmet expectations on police reform, voting rights, and criminal justice equity.
• Latinx Voters: Significant inroads by Trump among Latin men in swing states like Arizona and Nevada, challenging the traditional Democratic coalition.
• Suburban Voters: Educated suburban voters in "wow counties" (surrounding Milwaukee) are disaffected by Biden's shift left and are deciding between economic anxiety and character concerns.
• Coalition Erosion: The Obama-Biden coalition is described as fragile, with working-class men in both Black and Latin communities drifting away from the Democratic Party.

Administrative and Governance Challenges:

• Transition Risks: A potential contested election creates a difficult transition period; the administration must ensure a fully functioning government by January 20th.
• Staffing Strategy: A second Trump term faces the challenge of balancing a large political agenda with competent staffing, as many appointees are ideologically aligned but not necessarily competent.
• Incumbency Curse: Historical precedent suggests second-term presidencies often underperform due to staff turnover and momentum loss; Biden faces this while governing.
• Information Environment: The 2024 election will face unprecedented disinformation risks via AI, including deepfake audio/visuals and automated voter suppression tactics.

Congressional and State-Level Dynamics:

• Senate Outlook: The Senate map strongly favors Republicans; Democrats face their toughest battleground map in 20 years.
• House Outlook: The House remains highly competitive, likely resulting in a divided government.
• Vice Presidential Selection:
  • Trump is advised to pick a person of color (e.g., Tim Scott, Marco Rubio) rather than a woman to maximize returns among Hispanic and black male voters.
  • Biden's VP choice (Kamala Harris) is currently failing to alleviate concerns about his age; panelists suggest a more vigorous, trusted figure (e.g., Dwayne Johnson, Karen Bass) could have better mitigated this risk.
  • VP impact on the election outcome is statistically minimal (approx. 0.8% to the ticket) but relevant for continuity.

Forward-Looking Statements and Predictions:

• Electoral Map: Wisconsin is projected to decide the election 79% of the time in simulation models; the three Midwestern states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) are critical for Biden's path to 270 electoral votes.
• Voter Turnout: Success hinges on getting "double haters" and disaffected working-class voters to the polls; turnout may depend on grassroots organization and funding allocation.
• Policy Outcomes: A divided government is the most likely scenario, potentially leading to consensus on China policy but gridlock on Ukraine and trade.
• Democratic Strategy: Democrats are criticized for failing to pivot to economic messaging, focusing instead on abortion and constitutional crises, which alienates the "economic referendum" voter.
• Republican Strategy: Trump's party has been fully captured by the MAGA movement, pushing out establishment figures and making compromise within the party difficult.
• Global Context: The election is viewed as a referendum on democracy versus authoritarianism, occurring during a global year of elections in 80% of democracies.