Conference Presentation, Panel
2024 US Election Insights | Global Conference 2024
- Election outcomes are projected to be highly consequential, potentially echoing the unique pressures of 1968 involving unpopular presidents, wars, and technology shocks, while global trends indicate that 80% of democracies are holding elections this year with over 2 billion voters.
- Policy priorities are expected to shift, with abortion remaining a key motivator for Democrats and border security emerging as a top issue in all seven swing states alongside inflation, potentially overriding traditional economic referendums.
- A Trump presidency is anticipated to involve extending the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, implementing strongman politics with significant rollbacks on abortion and women's rights, and a radical departure from norms including the potential use of the DOJ and the firing of non-compliant Attorney Generals.
- A second Biden term is forecast to face exhaustion, high staff turnover, and a consolidation of power rather than aggressive doubling down, with the President potentially needing to pivot on trade issues similar to his second term if elected.
- The upcoming administration faces challenges regarding debt crises, likely necessitating entitlement reform through a commission and a consensus approach toward China, particularly within a divided government structure where reconciliation is difficult.
- Trump is expected to face significant hurdles in organization and preparation to be ready by January 20th, though success in selecting the right personnel and utilizing pre-work from groups like the Heritage Foundation could yield a massive first year.
- Voter sentiment suggests 75% of the country feels the nation is on the wrong track, favoring disruption over the status quo, with independent voters in swing states determining the outcome based on security and affordability metrics.
- Specific swing states are identified as critical, with Wisconsin historically deciding the election 79% of the time, while Republicans show strength in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
- Third-party candidate RFK Jr. is predicted to act as a spoiler by siphoning votes from both major parties, particularly among "double-hater" voters, though he is not expected to win any individual state.
- The Democratic coalition faces demographic shifts with a notable drop in young voter support and a potential erosion of the working-class base, driven by concerns over police reform, criminal justice, and the influence of international conflicts.
- Legal proceedings against Trump, including potential convictions or hung juries, are expected to significantly impact voter perception, though seeing Trump in court may negatively affect swing voters more than the legal verdict itself.
- Concerns regarding disinformation and AI are projected to create a unique information environment with risks of fake instructions and armed interference at voting booths, potentially affecting election security.
- Demographic trends show a narrowing gap in the Obama-Biden coalition, with black and Latin working-class men following the withdrawal of white working-class men, creating uncertainty in the margins required for victory.
- The Senate is forecast to strongly favor Republicans, while the House is expected to tilt slightly toward Democrats, resulting in a divided government that lacks a clear governing majority for either party.
- Future personnel decisions include predictions that a Trump administration should select a person of color for a vice-presidential role from a list of specific candidates, while a Biden-Harris ticket may struggle to mitigate age-related concerns.
- The election is predicted to be decided by a narrow slice of swing voters who are undecided or engage with politics minimally, representing approximately 2% of the American electorate.
- Long-term economic outlooks suggest that securing the border, aligning immigration with economic needs, and controlling entitlements could set the stage for a "great century," despite current fiscal policy criticisms of both candidates.