#8 - Lewis Bollard on how to end factory farming in our lifetimes

Scale and Neglect of Farm Animal Welfare

• Global farmed animal populations at any given time include approximately:
  • 23 billion chickens (15 billion broilers, 8 billion layers).
  • 6 billion land mammals (pigs, cows, rabbits).
  • Between 35 billion and 140 billion farmed fish (numbers are imprecise).
  • Trillions if wild-caught fish are included.
• Before the Open Philanthropy Project's entry, total global funding for farm animal advocacy was approximately $20 million annually.
  • Current global funding is estimated at $50 million, representing an increase but still a fraction of the problem's scale.
• Open Philanthropy selected farm animal welfare based on three criteria:
  • Importance: Massive scale of suffering.
  • Tractability: Existence of clear, effective solutions.
  • Neglectedness: Extremely low levels of funding and advocacy compared to the problem's magnitude.

Key Interventions and Cost-Effectiveness

• Corporate Campaigns:
  • Primary strategy of Open Philanthropy since 2015, with over $30 million in grants directed toward eliminating the worst practices (e.g., battery cages).
  • Highly effective in the US, securing commitments from major retailers (Costco, McDonald's) and food service providers (Compass Group, Aramark) to phase out battery cages.
  • Cost-effectiveness estimate: Approximately 150 hens moved to cage-free environments per dollar spent (conservative estimate assuming only 5 years of benefit acceleration).
  • Corporate campaigns are preferred over direct legislative action in the US due to the lack of enforceable federal laws and the "standing" doctrine preventing private citizen suits.
• Undercover Investigations:
  • Essential for exposing deliberate opacity in factory farms; cost range is $50,000–$100,000 per major investigation.
  • Recent legal victories in Utah and Idaho have struck down "ag-gag" laws under the First Amendment, protecting the publication of such footage.
  • Constraint: Risk of "market saturation" where media attention diminishes if investigations are too frequent in one region; scaling is possible by moving to neglected regions like Brazil and India.
• Food Tech and Alternatives:
  • Open Philanthropy supports the Good Food Institute to advance plant-based meats (Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods) and cellular agriculture ("clean meat").
  • Talent gap: The sector faces a severe shortage of high-level scientists rather than a lack of funding; top scientists could generate over $1 million in value annually.
  • Open Philanthropy has made equity investments in companies like Impossible Foods and provides grants to the Good Food Institute.
• Fish Welfare:
  • Highly neglected due to difficulty in relatability and lack of public awareness.
  • Common suffering includes suffocation during slaughter (taking hours) and severe stocking density issues.
  • Scientific consensus confirms fish feel pain, though their brains lack a neocortex, utilizing analogous structures for pain processing.
  • Open Philanthropy has made specific grants to address fish welfare in India and Europe.

Strategic Priorities and Geographic Focus

• Geographic Expansion:
  • China and India: Identified as top priorities due to housing ~50% of the world's farmed animals and pigs/chickens.
  • China: Open Philanthropy has granted ~$4 million, but growth is constrained by a lack of legal capacity for NGOs and few existing effective groups.
  • Latin America: Unexpectedly high receptivity; click-through rates for online ads are 5–6 times higher than in the US, suggesting a large, untapped pool of concern.
• Intervention Selection Criteria:
  • High Impact: Prioritizing work on species with the highest numbers (chickens, fish) over charismatic mammals (pigs, cows) where numbers are lower.
  • Neglectedness: Focusing on regions (China, India, Latin America) and species (fish) with minimal existing advocacy.
  • Track Record: Requiring evidence of tangible victories before scaling funding.
  • Team Competence: Seeking flexible, data-driven leadership capable of adapting strategies.

Areas of Skepticism and De-prioritization

• Individual Dietary Advocacy:
  • Open Philanthropy has largely deprioritized funding for online ads, leafleting, and vegan outreach.
  • Early studies suggesting high effectiveness were methodologically flawed (small samples, lack of control groups, motivated reasoning by researchers).
  • Newer, rigorous studies show variable and often lower impact on actual dietary change.
• Legal Advocacy in the US:
  • Considered low-impact due to:
    • Only two federal laws covering farm animals, which lack private enforcement mechanisms.
    • State laws often exempting "common agricultural practices" from cruelty statutes.
    • Standing doctrines requiring concrete harm to the plaintiff, which animals cannot demonstrate.
• Radical Confrontational Activism:
  • Viewed as counterproductive in the current cultural climate, often diverting resources to internal movement conflict rather than external reform.
  • Preference for evidence-based debate over moral shaming.

Wild Animal and Insect Welfare

• Wild Animals:
  • Potentially more numerous than farmed animals and highly neglected (only one major organization currently focuses on this).
  • Tractability is currently viewed as lower than farm animal welfare, but long-term trajectory matters for future generations.
• Insects:
  • High uncertainty regarding consciousness; estimated probability of sentience is at least 10%.
  • Concerns about insect farming creating a new, massive industry with negative welfare outcomes (extreme crowding, stress).
  • Open Philanthropy supports research into insect consciousness and humane insecticides but does not yet fund direct advocacy.
  • Lobster/crustacean slaughter (boiling alive) is identified as a highly problematic practice requiring further research on stunning technology.

Career Advice for Aspiring Advocates

• Target Roles:
  • Scientists: Cell biologists or plant scientists working at startups (e.g., Impossible Foods, Clara Foods) or in academia to advance clean meat and plant-based alternatives.
  • Campaigners/Generalists: Skills in management, public relations, strategy, and data analysis; ability to learn from trial and error.
  • Program Officers/Researchers: Analytical skills to evaluate interventions and shape strategy.
• Entry Points:
  • Internships at major organizations (Humane League, Mercy for Animals, Humane Society International).
  • Working in administrative or logistical roles within non-profits as a stepping stone.
  • Government roles in food safety, inspection services, or regulatory agencies (e.g., USDA) to influence standards from within.
• Skills to Avoid Relying On:
  • Law School: While helpful for credentials, legal advocacy is not a primary comparative advantage in this field; a surplus of pro-bono lawyers exists.
  • Pure "Earning to Give": A talent gap currently outweighs the funding gap in the sector; direct work is often more impactful for career capital in this specific cause area.
• Career Capital Transferability:
  • Skills in management, communication, and data analysis are highly transferable to other Effective Altruism causes and the private sector.
  • Working for less effective groups is acceptable as a learning opportunity if entry into top-tier organizations is blocked.

Future Outlook and Open Philanthropy Strategy

• Funding Trajectory: Global funding has doubled in the last two years, moving from a funding gap to a talent gap; confidence in sustained or increased funding exists.
• Critiques Acknowledged:
  • Over-reliance on incremental corporate reforms rather than systemic change.
  • Insufficient funding for creating new opportunities (e.g., in China) versus supporting existing ones.
  • Potential underfunding of long-term solutions like clean meat compared to immediate welfare fixes.
• Open Philanthropy's Role:
  • Maintains a "program officer" role with high autonomy but limited team support, leading to potential isolation.
  • Actively seeking to hire research assistants and expand grant-making in neglected areas (fish, insects, China, wild animal welfare).
  • Prioritizes rigorous, transparent research to avoid the "key under the lamppost" fallacy of easy-to-measure but ineffective interventions.