Interview, Podcast
#8 - Lewis Bollard on how to end factory farming in our lifetimes
- Farm animal welfare is expected to gain traction and scale due to alignment with importance, tractability, and neglectedness, with global advocacy funding estimated to have grown from approximately $20 million to $50 million annually following entry into the space.
- Corporate campaigns in the US are projected to achieve industry-wide cage-free transitions within 1.5 years, with an estimated impact of advancing progress by at least five years and benefiting roughly 45 million birds currently, while cost-effectiveness is assessed between $100 and $250 animals per dollar.
- Future plans include expanding Open Philanthropy's grant focus to China and India as organizations emerge there, with expectations that civil society and social activism will grow alongside economic development, though effectiveness in these regions is viewed as evaluatable only over 5 to 10+ year timeframes.
- Clean meat (cellular agriculture) is forecast to become commercially viable within 30 to 50 years, potentially sooner, with the industry expected to drive down costs for cage-free and free-range eggs and attract major donors as public prominence increases.
- Funding trends indicate that the number of funders contributing over $200,000 annually will likely double or grow, and the movement anticipates attracting more major potential donors as awareness of farm conditions improves public receptivity to alternatives.
- Career paths are expected to shift toward influencing regulations via the USDA, FDA, state departments of agriculture, or rural district attorneys, while research assistants and mentorship programs via 80,000 Hours may be recruited to support organizational growth.
- Specific future research plans involve testing the viability of non-controversial regulatory reform, replicating dietary change studies with larger datasets, and developing more humane insecticides or confirming the low (under 10%) probability of insect consciousness.
- Current interventions prioritize US corporate campaigns as most effective, whereas confidence in interventions in China and India remains lower due to a lack of tractability data, and confrontational tactics are viewed as likely premature for societal acceptance.
- Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact timeline for increased funding in wild animal welfare, while the number of globally farmed fish is estimated imprecisely between 35 billion and 140 billion, with potential for negative welfare experiences in farming.
- Risks include the possibility that divisions within the animal advocacy movement persist despite hopes they will dissipate, and that public outrage from undercover investigations may not immediately translate into dietary changes.