A Conversation with Najib Ghadbian: Syria's Choices

Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) Structure and Mandate

• Established in Doha in November 2013 as the primary political representative of Syrian opposition forces.
• Core objectives include the removal of Bashar al-Assad, dismantling the security services, and unifying the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
• Recognized as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people by 114 countries, including the United States.
• Operates with a "mini-parliament" structure comprising approximately 70 members, alongside a Supreme Military Council and an executive branch.
• The coalition aims to establish an interim government within two weeks to govern liberated areas and preserve state institutions.
• The Supreme Military Council, led by General Salim Idris, claims command over more than 80% of armed fighters on the ground.

Conflict Statistics and Humanitarian Crisis

• The death toll in the Syrian conflict has surpassed 70,000 individuals.
• Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are estimated at nearly 4 million, while registered refugees exceed 1 million across neighboring countries.
• Turkey hosts over 600,000 Syrian refugees; Jordan and Lebanon have absorbed significant additional numbers.
• Unemployment in Syria is estimated at approximately 70%.
• The regime currently controls roughly 30% to 40% of Syrian territory, with the FSA controlling an estimated 60% to 70% (termed "liberated areas").
• The conflict has escalated from initial sniper use to heavy artillery, tanks, air force operations, and Scud missile attacks.

Military Dynamics and Foreign Support

• The FSA's strength is estimated at 160,000 fighters, though it lacks basic munitions and strategic weaponry.
• Radical Islamist groups, including the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, constitute a minor faction of roughly 2,000 to 2,500 fighters, according to the SOC.
• Najeeb Ghabban argues that the Assad regime created the vacuum allowing these groups to emerge and that support for moderate forces is the optimal counter-strategy.
• The SOC urges the US and European allies to provide non-lethal aid and strategic weaponry (anti-tank, anti-aircraft) to balance the regime's military superiority.
• The US administration has provided non-lethal support, but the SOC cites a lack of political will regarding lethal aid as a primary obstacle.
• Gulf states have provided limited weapons, but not enough to alter the military balance.

Chemical Weapons and International Response

• The use of chemical weapons in Homs and Aleppo has been documented by Syrian sources and acknowledged by the US, UK, and France.
• Ghabban characterizes the use of chemical weapons as a tactical "test" of international resolve, fearing potential mass-scale deployment if the regime feels desperate.
• The coalition supports UN investigations into chemical weapon use and calls for a unified Security Council resolution, even if it requires Russian participation.
• There is a consensus within the coalition that no political settlement involving Bashar al-Assad is viable given his history of repression and crimes against humanity.

Post-Conflict Planning and Regional Stability

• The "Day After" project outlines plans for transitional justice, constitutional design, and security sector reform to prevent state failure.
• The coalition rejects redrawing Syria's borders (Sykes-Picot) or creating a federal system, arguing that no single ethnic or sectarian group holds a majority in any region to justify secession.
• The SOC emphasizes preserving Syria's territorial integrity to prevent spillover instability into Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel.
• Plans include dismantling the Assad-era special security units while integrating remaining regular army personnel into a new national army under civilian control.
• An estimated $60 billion is required for a full transition to stability, with an initial $150 million to $200 million needed for the first three months of interim government operations.
• The Syrian diaspora, including Syrian-Americans, has raised $42 million for relief efforts.

Geopolitical Alignment and Relations

• Iran's relationship with Syria is described as "destructive," with Assad having made Syria a "junior partner" serving Iranian interests, a move rejected by most Syrians.
• The coalition seeks normal relations with Iran based on mutual interest but views the current alignment as a primary destabilizer.
• Regarding Israel, the SOC states it has no demands, views the Golan Heights as an occupied territory to be resolved peacefully by a future democratic government, and commits to non-aggression.
• The coalition intends to contest the Assad regime's seat at the UN through the General Assembly to further delegitimize the government.
• Ghabban criticizes the Obama administration for a lack of clear leadership and symbolism regarding the removal of Assad, calling for the President to explicitly state that a solution excluding Assad is the only path.

Key Risks and Optimism

• The primary risk identified is the fragmentation of Syria into sectarian entities (Alawite, Kurdish, Sunni) or a failed state serving as a haven for extremists.
• The SOC is actively working to prevent this by maintaining a unified military command and engaging all sectarian groups in the political transition.
• The most pressing daily concern for the leadership is the death toll, which frequently exceeds 100 people per day.
• Optimism is derived from the high determination of Syrians inside the country, who view the conflict as a necessary sacrifice to end 40 years of dictatorship.