Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Panel
A Conversation with Najib Ghadbian: Syria's Choices
- An interim government of the Syrian Opposition Coalition is projected to be established within two weeks and is estimated to require between $150 million and $200 million to cover basic functions for its initial three-month period.
- The Supreme Military Council is predicted to eventually command over 80% of ground fighters, within a Free Syrian Army estimated at approximately 160,000 personnel, while extremist groups like Nusra are expected to comprise between 2,000 and 2,500 fighters.
- The transition toward a stable Syria without Bashar al-Assad is anticipated to be a long, clear process, with an estimated total requirement of $60 billion, driven by an expected commitment from all political players to preserve Syria's territorial integrity.
- The outlook includes a high risk that if the Assad regime reaches a desperate point, it may attempt to use chemical weapons on a mass scale, or if the conflict prolongs, result in a failed state, with concerns that Assad may not leave peacefully following Gaddafi or Saddam playbooks.
- Refugee numbers are projected to reach one million by the end of the current year and an additional half-million the following year, with hopes that daily death tolls will drop below 100 from recent levels of 150 to 200.
- The interim government is expected to support public employees abandoned by the current regime, and there is a reported optimism among Syrians inside the country regarding the swift achievement of these transition goals.