Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
A Conversation with President of the World Bank David Malpass
Milken InstituteDavid Malpass, Michael Milken, Richard Engel, Sean Cairncross, Chris Coons, Niall Ferguson, Jane Harman
- The World Bank anticipates a 150-million-person increase in global poverty due to the pandemic, reversing a 20-year downward trend, with recovery efforts for poverty and median income targeted to begin by April.
- Health programs and financing for personal protective equipment are planned for 111 countries in the near term, with broader responses scheduled for the following year and the subsequent five-year period.
- Lost learning among approximately one billion children currently out of school is projected to result in a lifetime income loss of $10 trillion per child cohort.
- Private sector creditors have decided against participating in debt relief, leaving only partial participation from some large official creditors, prompting a push for transparency in debt contracts and investment contracts for the poorest countries.
- The World Bank intends to establish a fair balance between creditors and debtors in new money contracts, noting China's 65% share of official bilateral credits requires a special solution to allow poor countries to advance.
- A durable model of prosperity aims to be established through a balanced rule of law protecting disadvantaged groups, including women, people with disabilities, and small businesses, while scaling pilot programs for hundreds of thousands to 10 million people.
- Global inequality is expected to worsen as central bank asset purchases in advanced economies buy assets generally owned by the relatively wealthy, contrasting with slower development in poorer nations.
- The U.S. is expected to see strong recovery signs, while China's growth is projected at 1.9 percent this year and to decline faster than anticipated over a five to 10-year timeframe due to demographic shifts and excessive debt burdens.
- A Biden administration is expected to quickly restore the U.S. place in the world, re-engage global alliances, and rebuild a bipartisan consensus for global engagement among middle-class Americans.
- Future governance in the U.S. is anticipated to include restoring democratic functioning, rebuilding physical infrastructure for resilience, addressing racial inequalities, and utilizing clean infrastructure to create jobs and promote technology.
- U.S. policy is expected to face persistent challenges regarding China, which is viewed as a global rival actively seizing sovereignty, with a liberal order needing to be a "bigger tent" where more people prosper.
- The Development Finance Corporation (DFC) is positioned to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative by leveraging private investment and sustainable, economically viable projects rather than matching dollar-for-dollar scale.
- Continued U.S. advancement of the American model and close cooperation among development agencies are expected regardless of whether a Trump or Biden administration is in power, contingent on domestic consensus.
- Concerns exist that without domestic consensus on foreign engagement, overseas efforts will be weakened, and that Turkey's alignment remains critical to NATO's interests.
- The Trump administration's shift on China is predicted to be judged positively by future historians, while a total reliance on a democratic centralism model is viewed as non-viable in a connected 21st-century world.