Earnings Call, Conference Presentation
A Coronavirus Update with Leading Health Experts and Business Leaders
Goldman SachsSharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Dr. Thomas Schinecker, Steve Rusckowski, Dr. Leonard Schleifer, Stéphane Bancel, Pablo Tebas, Peter Slavin, Dr. Barry Bloom, Sharmeen Mosavar-Rahmani
- Testing demand is projected to rise exponentially and remain nearly unlimited globally, while industry production capacity is expected to increase only linearly; Quest Diagnostics anticipates delivering 20,000 tests daily and reaching 150,000 tests weekly within a couple of weeks, with specimen collection capacity expected to reach 50% of the target within the next week.
- Regeneron plans to manufacture a monoclonal antibody cocktail in time for human testing in June, aims to initiate large-scale production in late summer, and anticipates FDA collaboration to meet these timelines; the company expects Kevzara and Actemra (scaled with Roche) to be available pending data, with manufacturing occurring based on demand and hopes that a single dose suffices, while noting potential biological uncertainties.
- Moderna expects to commence initial human testing for its vaccine in June, with phase two trials potentially starting in the summer, but estimates a very low probability of approval by fall 2020, projecting a 12 to 18-month path to approval; the company aims to supply dozens of millions of vials in 2021, with 2021 capacity significantly exceeding 2020 levels, and believes vaccine adaptation to viral mutations could occur in 30 days or less.
- Inovio is prepared to begin a DNA vaccine clinical trial with the first dose anticipated in the first week of April, with phase one safety and immunogenicity data expected early summer and larger phase three trials expected to start by the beginning of fall.
- Epidemiological models indicate the virus will persist through the fall, requiring approximately 60% of the population for herd immunity, with risks of case rebounds if social distancing is lifted prematurely; testing is deemed essential to track the epidemic's trajectory, and viral survival is estimated at 27 to 28 hours on plastic and steel versus a few hours on cardboard.
- Mass General Brigham plans to ramp up capacity and potentially house healthcare workers in hotels, while the national stockpile of masks is estimated at 12.5 million against a projected need of 3.5 billion; there is a call for the full mobilization of industry via the Defense Production Act to accelerate protective equipment manufacturing.