America’s pandemic election: what could go wrong?

Context and Stakes

• The 2020 U.S. presidential election is characterized by unprecedented risk due to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused over 200,000 American deaths.
• The election involves a sitting president with documented disregard for democratic norms and a refusal to explicitly commit to a peaceful transfer of power.
• Tens of millions of viewers globally tune into election night coverage, with specific fears of chaos arising from delayed results and disinformation.

Projected Election Night Scenarios

• Experts predict an "explosive situation" if Donald Trump holds a commanding lead after 65–70% of mail-in ballots are counted, while decisive states still have millions of unprocessed ballots.
• An "information vacuum" is expected post-election night, potentially leading to the rejection of election results by a significant number of Americans if the outcome is close.
• The potential for civil unrest is deemed high if the results are not accepted, with the immediate aftermath likely to "tear the country apart" absent a landslide victory.

Barriers to Voting and Turnout Effects

• The April 7 Wisconsin primary revealed systemic failures, including a shortage of 7,000 poll workers and a reduction from 182 to 5 polling places in Milwaukee.
• Data from Wisconsin indicates that long lines depressed overall turnout by more than 8.3%, with a specific 10% drop among African American voters.
• Between 2012 and 2018, nearly 1,700 polling places closed, the majority located in areas with majority minority populations.
• Non-white voters now constitute one-third of the American electorate, the highest share recorded.

Litigation and Legal Challenges

• There are currently 228 pending court cases across 43 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico, a volume described as unprecedented for the pre-election period.
• Litigation focuses primarily on emergency injunctions to expand early voting timelines and ballot return procedures in response to the pandemic.
• Specific allegations of voter suppression include precinct relocations without notice and the removal of voters based on ethnic-sounding last names.

Mail-in Voting Logistics and Risks

• Almost all states will permit no-excuse mail-in voting, with nine states and D.C. mailing ballots to every registered voter.
• Florida predicts approximately 4.2 million absentee ballots, creating fears regarding Postal Service delivery delays and staffing shortages in election offices.
• Electoral districts face risks related to failure to process ballots, mail delays, and the rejection of ballots due to procedural errors.
• Despite risks, studies confirm that mail-in voting boosts turnout and does not inherently favor one political party.

Disinformation and External Interference

• President Trump has falsely characterized mail-in voting as "very dangerous" and claimed the election would be "the most corrupt in history," despite a lack of evidence supporting these assertions.
• Experts suggest Russian actors may amplify existing U.S. disinformation content rather than creating original false narratives to exploit domestic divisions.
• Misleading information regarding voting logistics risks causing voters to prioritize health over democracy, potentially leading to self-induced suppression.

Electoral Projections and Outcomes

• As of late September, The Economist model projects President Trump is unlikely to win a second term, though the contest is expected to tighten.
• Unlike the 2000 election where the loser (Al Gore) conceded gracefully, the 2020 loser may not do so, risking long-term damage to the global esteem of American democracy.
• Early voting is recommended as the primary strategy to mitigate the risks of glitches, lines, and lost votes.