Interview, Webinar, Other
America’s pandemic election: what could go wrong?
- Election night is expected to be historic, characterized by unique challenges including mass mail voting, long polling waits, delayed results, and heightened disinformation.
- A significant information vacuum is predicted for election night, with expectations that telling voters to wait four days to a week for results will fail to manage the situation or prevent chaos.
- High risks of post-election instability and national division are anticipated unless landslide victories occur, driven by potential falsehoods from candidates and a likelihood that a significant number of Americans will not accept the outcomes as fair.
- Structural barriers such as long lines and underfunded electoral districts are predicted to depress turnout by more than 8.3% overall and over 10% for African American voters, with pre-pandemic laws continuing to disproportionately burden non-white voters who will comprise a record third of the electorate.
- Unprecedented litigation levels are projected, with at least 228 pending court cases across 43 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico as of early March, while almost all states are expected to allow no-excuse mail voting or mail ballots to every registered voter.
- Specific processing failures, mail delays, and ballot rejections are anticipated in underfunded districts, particularly in Florida, which is predicted to receive 4.2 million absentee ballots despite concerns regarding Postal Service delivery and insufficient poll workers.
- While mail voting is expected to boost turnout without favoring either party, strategic disinformation and confusion regarding voting procedures may deter participation, though early voting is predicted to mitigate the magnitude of glitches and lost votes.
- The electoral outlook indicates President Trump is unlikely to win a second term by the end of September, though the contest is expected to tighten and become more heated, with the possibility that the loser may not concede gracefully, potentially damaging the perceived esteem of U.S. democracy globally.