Interview, Fireside Chat, Podcast
Andrew Kortina of Venmo and Fin on Technological Determinism and Work's Relationship to Dignity
- Predicts a distant future where human labor becomes optional due to technological abundance, potentially leading to a scenario where only a minority of individuals generate content watched by the vast majority under a power law distribution.
- Notes that the historical link between dignity and productive work may become dangerous in resource-abundant eras, raising risks that those unable to find "useful" work could be locked out of a dignified life.
- Anticipates that for the next several decades, humans will continue to have work to do, with a specific timeframe of "about two years" or "generations" cited for potential shifts in how societies conceive of dignity.
- Foresees a long-term possibility of individuals spending "three hours a week" dealing with service providers rather than with family, though acknowledges a strong preference for prioritizing time with children over such administrative tasks.
- Identifies efficiency risks in current systems, noting that manual coordination of remote assistants involves high turnover costs and that piecemealing these solutions is inefficient compared to integrated networks.
- Predicts that if a system like "Finn" evolves into an open-ended black box capable of performing all work, society could enter a post-work era, whereas under-supply causes delays and over-supply leads to financial waste.
- Suggests that while specific corporate structures may dissolve in future life models due to coordination difficulties, the momentum of technological advancement remains unstoppable, with competitive pressures ensuring development continues regardless of individual preferences.
- Observes current commercial trends where Venmo is beginning to monetize consumer-to-business payments, with uncertainty remaining on whether widespread merchant acceptance of such digital currencies will be achieved.
- Highlights risks associated with over-reliance on arbitrary work for dignity, describing a "failure mode" where assigning value to unnecessary tasks results in the worst of all worlds, while also noting the potential wastefulness of traditional production and marketing lines.
- Speculates on future human motivations in a post-scarcity context, suggesting that without external necessity, individuals might turn to simulations, VR experiences, or art, though the drive to create useful things relies on perceived need.