Fireside Chat, Interview
Ash Carter: Former US Secretary of Defense
- James "Ash" Carter served as the 25th U.S. Secretary of Defense from 2015 to 2017 and is currently the author of Inside the Five-Sided Box, a book focused on Pentagon management rather than personal memoirs.
- Carter emphasizes that the Department of Defense (DoD) is the largest institution on Earth, comparable to the country of Sweden in size, with a budget of $750 billion annually.
- Operational Scale:
- The DoD employs more people than Target, McDonald's, Amazon, UPS, and GE combined.
- Its research and development (R&D) spending exceeds that of Apple, Google, and Microsoft combined.
- It is the world's largest real estate holder, encompassing an area the size of Pennsylvania.
- Carter's Tenure and Departure:
- Carter described his job as having a dual mandate: executing policy while protecting the nation, stating, "Security is like oxygen; when you have it, you don't think about it; when you don't have it, it's all you think about."
- He declined to offer a specific opinion on whether he would accept a role from President Trump, citing a lack of mutual listening and concerns regarding public conduct in Washington.
- He warned that the current vacancy in the Secretary of Defense position is unsustainable, noting the DoD requires a leader who can provide direction and control.
- China Strategy:
- Carter identifies the U.S.-China relationship as a "sustained competitive situation" driven by China's dual mindset: leveraging a peaceful global system while resenting external rules and seeking to dominate its own sphere.
- He argues that traditional models (Cold War containment or free trade) are insufficient; a new "playbook" is required because the U.S. trades with China, unlike the Soviet Union.
- He criticized the U.S. shift toward bilateral trade negotiations, arguing that China dominates coercive, one-on-one deals, whereas the U.S. strength lies in multilateral, rules-based systems like the TPP.
- Carter views current measures, such as tariffs and restrictions on Huawei, as "first drafts" of a more comprehensive strategy needed to address economic, political, and military competition.
- ISIS and Post-Conflict Management:
- Carter assumed the role of Secretary of Defense in November 2014 specifically to address the rise of ISIS, which he deemed an existential threat requiring immediate action.
- He clarified that the U.S. strategy in Iraq was not an "endless war" of direct combat but a support mission to help local forces reclaim territory from "barbarians."
- He expressed deep concern regarding the political and economic aftermath of conflict, recalling the 2003 Iraq invasion as a mistake and fearing a lack of stability if withdrawal occurs prematurely.
- Iran and Regional Security:
- Carter characterizes Iran as a "broad spectrum trouble" due to its ballistic missiles, nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and proxy networks.
- He assesses that while intentional war is unlikely for both the U.S. and Iran due to economic and political constraints, the risk of unintentional conflict is high.
- He cites the 2016 detention of 10 U.S. sailors in Iranian waters as a critical example of how quickly a minor incident can escalate in a region with limited margin for error.
- Carter warns that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operates with a "long leash," making the current environment volatile despite the lack of desire for a full-scale war from either side.