Fireside Chat, Interview
Ash Carter: Former US Secretary of Defense
- The competitive relationship with China is projected to persist indefinitely as a sustained struggle with a "communist dictatorship," where any trade deal is anticipated to function as only a "brief pause" before shifting to new issues, with the speaker characterizing current U.S. strategies like tariffs and bilateral deals as a "first draft" rather than a comprehensive response.
- Policymakers are currently seeking a new strategic "playbook" that fits neither a Cold War nor a free trade model, while the decision to abandon the TPP is viewed as "short-sighted" for seeding the field to China in a coercion-based environment where China may dominate.
- Europe is expected to share the gravity of the China challenge but is perceived to be at a "disadvantage" due to a lack of U.S. adherence to a rules-based system in their support, contrasting with the U.S. stance that trade relations "are not going anywhere."
- Regarding Iraq, the military victory against ISIS is expected to endure only if the political and economic aftermath is effectively managed, with U.S. forces remaining to support local populations and prevent a need to fight Sunni insurgents for a "third time," rather than engaging in an "endless war."
- An intentional war between the U.S. and Iran is deemed "not likely" due to mutual disinterest, but an unintentional conflict arising from tens of thousands of forces in a "small area" with the IRGC operating on a "long leash" is identified as the primary concern.
- There is an expectation of "more than 50 percent chance" of a conflict sequel involving "several days of sustained and intense military conflict," which is predicted to last approximately "three days or so" before U.S. control is re-established, though the scenario is described as an "ugly baby" to be avoided.
- The Department of Defense is expected to continue operations under acting leadership as the process remains "very orderly" with professional ballast, but this state "can't go like that for long" and a confirmed Secretary of Defense is required to provide necessary "direction and control" to the "very obedient" institution.
- Navigating the "complicated world" and "big world" is expected to require assistance from both the President and the Secretary of Defense, as no single leader can manage the situation alone.